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What will happen to David Kernell, indicted for hacking Sarah Palin's email account?

Current forecast: Plea bargain, no jail or prison time (45% chance14%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Plea bargain, no jail or prison time with a probability of 45% (up 14% in last 1 day)

David Kernell, age 20, an economics student at the University of Tennessee, was indicted Tuesday October 7th by a federal grand jury. He pleaded not guilty in federal court on October 8th. Trial is set for December 16th. Kernell is the son of a Democratic Tennessee state lawmaker.

The indictment alleges that on Sept. 16 Kernell reset the password to Palin's personal e-mail account to gain access to it. Authorities say Kernell then read the contents of the account and made screenshots of the e-mail directory, e-mail content and other personal information, later posting some of the information to a public Web site.

Suspend date is set two months after initial trial date, because trial delays often occur.

AP story: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93MDSE80&show_article=1


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Convicted, jail or prison time
11%
Convicted, no jail or prison time
9%
Plea bargain, jail or prison time
20%
Plea bargain, no jail or prison time
45%
Found not guilty at trial
9%
Prosecutors drop charges
5%
Activity: H$4,179
Question suspends in 12 weeks

Suspend date: Mon 16th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Convicted, jail or prison time: 15%, Convicted, no jail or prison time: 15%, Plea bargain, jail or prison time: 20%, Plea bargain, no jail or prison time: 30%, Found not guilty at trial: 15%, Prosecutors drop charges: 5%

Action history:

Suspend date: Mon 16th Feb 2009 3:59pm PST (12 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (29)

29 predictions

4 weeks ago
growthy predicted Plea bargain, no jail or prison time (H$150 at 48%)
6 weeks ago
mediawatcher1975 predicted Plea bargain, no jail or prison time (H$50 at 43%)
6 weeks ago
cheesenips predicted Plea bargain, no jail or prison time (H$100 at 43%)
6 weeks ago
cheesenips predicted Plea bargain, no jail or prison time (H$100 at 42%)
6 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Prosecutors drop charges (H$50 at 4%)
more

Comments (1)

My intent is that any community service time will NOT count as "jail or prison time" for settlement purposes.
posted 6 weeks ago

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