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Who will be the first space tourist after January 1, 2009?
Current forecast: Charles Simonyi (51% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Charles Simonyi with a probability of 51% (unchanged in last 1 day)
After paying about $35 million, Richard Garriott is expected to become the sixth space tourist on October 11 or 12 when he lifts off from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. Charles Simonyi is expected to become the first two-time space tourist in Spring 2009. However, at 60 years old, health problems or other unforeseen circumstances may delay that trip.
Investor Esther Dyson has paid $3 million to be Simonyi's backup. Dyson, the daughter of spaceship designer Freeman Dyson, will spend the next six months brushing up on her Russian and gearing up for spaceflight. Dyson anticipates that her chances of replacing Simonyi are about 5 percent.
Additional information:
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/07/1506340.aspx
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/esther-dyson/release-09-back-to-flight_b_132521.html
http://www.livescience.com/space/081007-estherdyson-spacetourist.html
Investor Esther Dyson has paid $3 million to be Simonyi's backup. Dyson, the daughter of spaceship designer Freeman Dyson, will spend the next six months brushing up on her Russian and gearing up for spaceflight. Dyson anticipates that her chances of replacing Simonyi are about 5 percent.
Additional information:
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/07/1506340.aspx
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/esther-dyson/release-09-back-to-flight_b_132521.html
http://www.livescience.com/space/081007-estherdyson-spacetourist.html
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Charles Simonyi |
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Esther Dyson or someone else |
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Activity: H$4,188
Question suspends in 16 weeks
Suspend date: Fri 20th Mar 2009 5pm PDT (16 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Charles Simonyi: 95%, Esther Dyson or someone else: 5%
Action history:
Created Wed 8th Oct 6:14pm PDT by onedave
onedave
Suspend date: Fri 20th Mar 2009 5pm PDT (16 weeks to go)
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13 predictions
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score: 10
Moscow Times 1 day ago
sold to VeriSign), who had recently come back from a trip to the space station as the second 'space tourist.' One evening, the group sat around a campfire as the sun set, and around 50 African schoolchildren were bussed in. Altogether, there were about
score: 10
Information Week 3 weeks ago
game developer Richard Garriott has returned to Earth after visiting the International Space Station as a working tourist. Space Adventures Ltd., the commercial company that helped send Garriott to the space station, announced Friday that he had returned
score: 10
Information Week 3 weeks ago
International Space Station, but he's already made space history. Garriott, a client of commercial space mission company Space Adventures Ltd., and other crewmembers launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan aboard a Soyuz TMA spacecraft
score: 10
Boston Globe 3 weeks ago
give private entrepreneurs broader access to the orbiting station and encourage private space travel, the latest U.S. space tourist said Monday. Three days after returning to Earth following 12-day journey into space, Richard Garriott, the first American
score: 10
Washington Post 3 weeks ago
give private entrepreneurs broader access to the orbiting station and encourage private space travel, the latest U.S. space tourist said Monday. Three days after returning to Earth following 12-day journey into space, Richard Garriott, the first American
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