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Will anyone win creationist Adnan Oktar's multitrillion pound prize for proving evolution?

Current forecast: 10% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 10% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Mr Adnan Oktar, a creationist who unsucessfully campaigned for Dr Richard Dawkins' website to be banned in Turkey, is offering scientists a multitrillion pound prize for providing fossil evidence of evolution.

The muslim writer, and fierce critic of what he calls the 'Darwin Dictatorship', is looking for anyone who can produce a single intermediate-form fossil demonstrating evolution.

Read the full Independent article.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If no news by settlement date, question will settle as 'no'. The claim must be successful to settle as 'yes'.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
10%
No
90%
Activity: H$15,686
Question suspends in 44 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 9th Oct 2009 4:59pm PDT (44 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Wed 8th Oct 6:43pm PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 9th Oct 2009 4:59pm PDT (44 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (53)

53 predictions

18 hours ago
iknowwhatismyname predicted Yes (H$6 at 10%)
1 week ago
rick_marin predicted No (H$100 at 90%)
1 week ago
rhoan74 predicted Yes (H$5 at 10%)
1 week ago
allylcc predicted No (H$100 at 90%)
1 week ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$10,000 at 87%)
more

Comments (22)

Kind of reminds me of the joke...

Creationist: Show me an intermediate fossil that fills in this gap in the fossil record!
:: Palentologist shows intermediate fossil ::
Creationist: Aha! Now you have -two- gaps in the fossil record!
posted 7 weeks ago
Btw, by "claim" do you mean somebody will claim to have the evidence, or that Oktar will award that person?
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 tisha[Admin]
I mean that the claim will be successful. Sorry - just added this to the settlement details. If any of the 3 first predictors want their money back, I'll refund it.

ps - I could use multi-trillion pounds ... anyone got a shovel?
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 s99nj
Evolution is a THEORY. Only circumstantial evidence support it. I think there is room to suggest for both creation + evolution.
posted 7 weeks ago
Hm... somehow I doubt that Oktar actually has the ability to pay the claim...
posted 7 weeks ago
Who cares if he does as long as i get my h$!
posted 7 weeks ago
Say. If i do prove this can i get paid in h$?
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 tisha[Admin]
sure ... we'll pay you the equivalent current exchange rate for pounds stirling = hubdub dollars!
posted 7 weeks ago
Well thats like a 100,000 pounds for one h$! Although i think hes giving the reward in euros not pounds.
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 gadget666
this could get embarassing for him if someone actually finds a fossil fitting the criteria.
posted 5 weeks ago
He'll find something wrong with it. After all, its impossible to prove a negative.
posted 5 weeks ago
Evolution is NOT a THEORY. There are so many facts it's undeniable. I'm off to turkey to get my bucks. see ya
posted 3 weeks ago
It is largley based on circumstancial evidence. "Facts" dont generally factor in with evolution. Its based on what people think must have happened.
posted 3 weeks ago
  14 kruijs[Power User]
That's true, dragon. Both are theorems. But there just ain't any serious evidence to back up the creationists' one.

Often, creationism is promoted in relation with religion. And that makes it hard to take it seriously. Remember: Those religious guys killed critics who said the earth is spheric and circulating around the sun!
posted 3 weeks ago
Im not saying evolution didnt happen. I am also not advocating creationalism. I think it is largley possible that evolution is correct. I am just saying that the reason this guy is doing this multi trillion pound prize is because he wants to exploit a hole in the theory of evolution!
posted 3 weeks ago
I have wondered why it's referred to as the "theory" of evolution. There is tangible evidence from fosils from hundreds of different animals including Humans. Most of all, surly it makes perfect sense. Anyway, The alternative is talking snakes and virgin births.
posted 3 weeks ago
  17 tisha[Admin]
hey jason - welcome to the science category ;-)
posted 3 weeks ago
..... jason.... did you read what i said above? Let me condense it for you
You: Evolution is real
Me: Its based on circumstancial evidence
Kruijs: Extrodenary claims require extrodenary evidence. Creationalsim has no extroidenary evidence.
Me: *skillfully dodging a statement which i have no rebutal to* Im not defending creationilsm!
You: Evolution is real.
posted 3 weeks ago
dragonfangxl. I did read what you wrote the first time, but I only heard what you said the second time. I'm making peace.
posted 2 weeks ago
  20 gilo
Impossible to predict. Oktar obviously does not have any sense of what we know about how things change through time, so he won't accept any 'proof' as it won't be the 'proof' he's asking for. An evolutionists proof won't meet his idea of proof. It's simple posturing, why else would he offer up a prize fund he couldn't pay? He knows it's impossible purely by his own parameters of the challenge. He's getting a nice bit of publicity and can sit smugly back, claiming that any lack of 'proof' simply proves his own theories. If it wasn't so deluded, you could almost argue it's an admirably clever move. But it is, so you can't.
posted 1 week ago
...I find it amazing that at least 17 people (at time of writing, 17% yes) think that Oktar dude could possibly convinced. It's like functionally identical to the Randi prize for the opposite reasons. I'd slam down a lot more $h, but I just started this game and ain't got much to play with yet.
posted 1 week ago
@eog - There you go, that should help your payout a little bit.
posted 1 week ago

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