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Will the US government take ownership stakes in major banks by end of 2008?

Settled as Yes

With the recent bailout package, the US Government has taken ownership stakes in a number of banks, by investing gov't funds in exchange for shares of non-voting stocks, which does represent an ownership stake.

From this source: http://www.buffalonews.com/145/story/508916.html

"To date, 53 banks have received $161.5 billion, with at least 25 more being approved for $6 billion more. Hundreds of others applied by the Nov. 14 deadline.

Under the voluntary program, participating banks sell newly issued, non-voting senior preferred shares to the U. S. Treasury in exchange for an amount of capital equal to at least 1 percent of a bank’s “risk-weighted” assets and no more than 3 percent of those assets. The shares pay an initial annual dividend of 5 percent for the first 5 years, and then 9 percent, giving banks an incentive to raise more money to buy back the shares from the Treasury quickly. "

Background:

Having tried without success to unlock frozen credit markets, the Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many United States banks to try to restore confidence in the financial system, according to government officials.

Treasury officials say the just-passed $700 billion bailout bill gives them the authority to inject cash directly into banks that request it. More on the New York Times.

Note: To settle as Yes the government needs to take stakes in at least three healthy banks (i.e. banks they were not in bankruptcy or about to enter bankruptcy).


Settlement details: To settle as Yes the government needs to take stakes in at least three healthy banks (i.e. banks they were not in bankruptcy or about to enter bankruptcy).

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
82%
No
18%
Activity: H$22,690
Settled as Yes on last Sunday 5:07pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) Settlement date: last Sunday 5:07pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 70%

Action history:

Created Thu 9th Oct 1:17am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Suspended Fri 10th Oct 4:03pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Associated Press announced at 6:45PM EDT that US will take equity stakes in banks.

Suspending pending news links.
Settlement requested Fri 10th Oct 4:22pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Link

<http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-paulson11-2008oct11,0,6582286.story>
Settlement requested Fri 10th Oct 4:24pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: The U.S. government confirms it will take equity ownership in banks for the first time since the Great Depression.

<http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-paulson11-2008oct11,0,6582286.story>
Settlement requested Fri 10th Oct 4:25pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Prediction cutoff 6:45PM EDT
Unsuspended Sun 12th Oct 3:35pm PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: No banks have been identified so this question should still be open
Settlement requested Tue 14th Oct 8:27am PDT by cheesenips: Five banks named: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Economy/story?id=6028477&page=1 Please settle as Yes.
Settlement requested Tue 4th Nov 4:57am PST by keyeshoveden: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2008/pi2008113_257253.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_top+stories
This article seems to imply that equity (ie ownership stakes) have been taken in nine banks so far and that many more could be affected.
Settlement requested last Saturday 5:06am PST by keyeshoveden: Do you think we can settle this now?
Suspended last Saturday 5:22am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Suspended while examining settlement issues
Settlement requested last Sunday 10:45am PST by keyeshoveden: http://www.buffalonews.com/145/story/508916.html

This shows that, I think, 153 US banks have had equity investments. Equity is ownership.
Settled as 'Yes' last Sunday 5:07pm PST by bayoubear[Admin]: With the recent bailout package, the US Government has taken ownership stakes in a number of banks, by investing gov't funds in exchange for shares of non-voting stocks, which does represent an ownership stake.

From this source: http://www.buffalonews.com/145/story/508916.html

"To date, 53 banks have received $161.5 billion, with at least 25 more being approved for $6 billion more. Hundreds of others applied by the Nov. 14 deadline.

Under the voluntary program, participating banks sell newly issued, non-voting senior preferred shares to the U. S. Treasury in exchange for an amount of capital equal to at least 1 percent of a bank’s “risk-weighted” assets and no more than 3 percent of those assets. The shares pay an initial annual dividend of 5 percent for the first 5 years, and then 9 percent, giving banks an incentive to raise more money to buy back the shares from the Treasury quickly. "

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) Settlement date: last Sunday 5:07pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (24)

24 predictions

5 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Yes (H$1,500 at 81%)
5 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 79%)
6 weeks ago
cheesenips predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 78%)
7 weeks ago
youbet predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 81%)
7 weeks ago
biloxibeachboy predicted Yes (H$20 at 80%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 dieseldog
suspended on an annoucement? did they annouce 3 healthy banks? 3 banks that are not healthy?
posted 7 weeks ago

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