Created Thu 9th Oct 8:26am PDT by 
carnacthemagnificent
All questions » General » Weather » carnacthemagnificent 
Weather - When will the first big snowfall arrive in Central Park, NYC (Fall 2008-Spring 2009)?
Current forecast: January 16, 2009 - January 31, 2009 (23% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is January 16, 2009 - January 31, 2009 with a probability of 23% (unchanged in last 1 day)
Sometimes it snows a lot in New York City in the winter. Sometimes it doesn't.
For the purposes of this question, a "big" snowfall will be defined as 6" or more accumulated in any twenty-four hour period. Settlement date will be the beginning of the snowfall (For example a snowfall reported by the NWS as occurring Dec 31-Jan 1 will be settled as Dec 31).
If there is no accumulation of snow of 6" or more in any 24 hour period before May 31, 2009, this question settles as "Other."
See this blog for compiled historical weather data: http://www.anderoid.com/~seander/archives/000054.html
See the National Weather Service website for observational info:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
Historical weather extremes, Central Park
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/extremes.html
For the purposes of this question, a "big" snowfall will be defined as 6" or more accumulated in any twenty-four hour period. Settlement date will be the beginning of the snowfall (For example a snowfall reported by the NWS as occurring Dec 31-Jan 1 will be settled as Dec 31).
If there is no accumulation of snow of 6" or more in any 24 hour period before May 31, 2009, this question settles as "Other."
See this blog for compiled historical weather data: http://www.anderoid.com/~seander/archives/000054.html
See the National Weather Service website for observational info:
http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=okx
Historical weather extremes, Central Park
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/extremes.html
Settlement details:
As reported by the National Weather Service.
Make your prediction!
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Before December 1, 2008 |
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December 1, 2008 - December 15, 2008 |
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December 16, 2008 - December 31, 2008 |
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January 1, 2009 - January 15, 2009 |
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January 16, 2009 - January 31, 2009 |
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February 1, 2009 - February 14, 2009 |
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February 15, 2009 - February 28, 2009 |
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March 1, 2009 - March 31, 2009 |
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April 1, 2009 - May 31, 2009 |
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Other |
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Activity: H$900
Question suspends in 25 weeks
Suspend date: Mon 1st Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (25 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Before December 1, 2008: 1%, December 1, 2008 - December 15, 2008: 2%, December 16, 2008 - December 31, 2008: 5%, January 1, 2009 - January 15, 2009: 15%, January 16, 2009 - January 31, 2009: 22%, February 1, 2009 - February 14, 2009: 22%, February 15, 2009 - February 28, 2009: 15%, March 1, 2009 - March 31, 2009: 8%, April 1, 2009 - May 31, 2009: 2%, Other: 8%
Action history:
Created Thu 9th Oct 8:26am PDT by carnacthemagnificent
carnacthemagnificent
Suspend date: Mon 1st Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (25 weeks to go)
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13 predictions
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score: 10
Mail Online UK 7 hours ago
Icy winds and heavy snow storms swept across Britain today, causing chaos for drivers and closing hundreds of schools. Thousands of children got a day off school as sub-zero temperatures and heavy snow forced around
score: 10
Mail Online UK 7 hours ago
58.7 hours. The snow of the last week has led to a flurry of bets on a White Christmas. William Hill is offering 5/1 that there will be snow in London on December 25. 'With less than four weeks to go we are getting a little nervous about
score: 10
Mail Online UK 10 hours ago
58.7 hours. The snow of the last week has led to a flurry of bets on a White Christmas. William Hill is offering 5/1 that there will be snow in London on December 25. 'With less than four weeks to go we are getting a little nervous about
score: 10
Mail Online UK 18 hours ago
58.7 hours. The snow of the last week has led to a flurry of bets on a White Christmas. Hazard: Snow on the roads near Whitby last month William Hill is offering 5/1 that there will be snow in London on December 25. 'With less than four weeks
score: 10
Mail Online UK 21 hours ago
58.7 hours. The snow of the last week has led to a flurry of bets on a White Christmas. William Hill is offering 5/1 that there will be snow in London on December 25. 'With less than four weeks to go we are getting a little nervous about
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