Created Thu 9th Oct 2008 11:21am PST by

bilalownsu Level 6, Player (H$2,475)

Will the DOW go under 7000 points by the end of the year?

Settled as No

Dow never dropped below 7000, as the lowest point was about 7500

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

22%

78%

Settled as No on Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:37am PST

Activity: H$291,877
Predictions: 370
Comments: 7

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 9th Oct 2008 11:21am PST by

bilalownsu Level 6, Player (H$2,475)

Suspended Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 2009 3:46am PST by

keyeshoveden [Power User]

: It didn't.

Settled as 'No' Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:38am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: Dow never dropped below 7000, as the lowest point was about 7500

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Predictions (370)

1 year ago

jon1

predicted No (H$50 at 78%)

1 year ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,817,606)

predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 19%)

1 year ago

capt_chaos Level 5, Predictor (H$1,843)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 17%)

1 year ago

keyeshoveden [Power User]

predicted No (H$1,000 at 83%)

1 year ago

bgrigore Level 18, Megadubber (H$2,817,606)

predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 20%)

Comments (7)

bayoubear [Admin]

This is one wager I wouldn't want to win.......

posted 1 year ago

eliminati Level 16, Oracle (H$525,198)

So I take this one to mean that it must merely dip below 7000 for one second of intraday trading, or after-hours trading, or open, or close?

I think that is the reasonable interpretation of "go under" - it certainly cannot mean just to close at that amount, therefore it must include opening, trading, and after hours?

posted 1 year ago

bayoubear [Admin]

Since the question does not make any statement about having to close at or below 7000, just dropping below below it, even if just momentarily will satisfy the requirements for a YES

posted 1 year ago

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$765,410)

bilalownsu, Are you interested in extending this or creating another one to carry thru the end of the year?

posted 1 year ago

genestealeruk Level 7, Pro (H$3,945)

Why does this suspend on the 1st December?

posted 1 year ago

bayoubear [Admin]

This is a longer term prediction question, requiring wagerers to make their choice well in advance of the settlement date...it allows players to see how good they are at actually predicting what will happen, not simply reacting to the changes in market conditions as we near settlement. There are other questions that do suspend closer to the end of the year.....

posted 1 year ago

drzinternet Level 16, Oracle (H$765,410)

For those who don't like to have their H$ tied up for such a long time, http://www.hubdub.com/m23331/Will_the_Dow_Stay_over_7000_in_2008, poses the exact opposite question, and runs until Christmas.

posted 1 year ago

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