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Will the DOW go under 7000 points by the end of the year?

Settled as No

Dow never dropped below 7000, as the lowest point was about 7500

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
22%
No
78%
Settled as No on Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:37am PST

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Thu 9th Oct 2008 11:21am PST by bilalownsu
Suspended Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 1st Jan 2009 3:46am PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: It didn't.
Settled as 'No' Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:38am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Dow never dropped below 7000, as the lowest point was about 7500

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (370)

1 year ago
jon1 predicted No (H$50 at 78%)
1 year ago
bgrigore predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 19%)
1 year ago
capt_chaos predicted Yes (H$100 at 17%)
1 year ago
keyeshoveden[Power User] predicted No (H$1,000 at 83%)
1 year ago
bgrigore predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 20%)

Comments (7)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
This is one wager I wouldn't want to win.......
posted 1 year ago
  2 eliminati
So I take this one to mean that it must merely dip below 7000 for one second of intraday trading, or after-hours trading, or open, or close?

I think that is the reasonable interpretation of "go under" - it certainly cannot mean just to close at that amount, therefore it must include opening, trading, and after hours?
posted 1 year ago
  3 bayoubear[Admin]
Since the question does not make any statement about having to close at or below 7000, just dropping below below it, even if just momentarily will satisfy the requirements for a YES
posted 1 year ago
bilalownsu, Are you interested in extending this or creating another one to carry thru the end of the year?
posted 1 year ago
Why does this suspend on the 1st December?
posted 1 year ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
This is a longer term prediction question, requiring wagerers to make their choice well in advance of the settlement date...it allows players to see how good they are at actually predicting what will happen, not simply reacting to the changes in market conditions as we near settlement. There are other questions that do suspend closer to the end of the year.....
posted 1 year ago
For those who don't like to have their H$ tied up for such a long time, http://www.hubdub.com/m23331/Will_the_Dow_Stay_over_7000_in_2008, poses the exact opposite question, and runs until Christmas.
posted 1 year ago

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