Created Thu 9th Oct 5:26pm PDT by 
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How many Active Members will the American Military have on December 31, 2008?
Current forecast: 1,450,000 - 1,465,000 (57% chance
28%)
28%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 1,450,000 - 1,465,000 with a probability of 57% (up 28% in last 1 day)
The size of the military has had positive gains for the last 5 months of available statistical data. As of August 31,'08 the reported total was 1,440,791 members, an increase of 19,095 from the previous year.
The Monthly Fluctuations can be seen here: http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms2.pdf
And the Total Armed Services are listed here: http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms1.pdf
This question will suspend on December 31 and remain suspended until the data is released, likely in February of '09. Upon which settlement can be determined from the second mentioned chart.
Big Thanks to Jenni for helping with this one.
Category Editor Notation
This market will be suspended for 4-8 weeks awaiting results. This market has been granted an exemption from the standard 7 day rule. Please know that once this market is suspended on December 31, 2008 your wagers will be tied up until the reports are released.
The Monthly Fluctuations can be seen here: http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms2.pdf
And the Total Armed Services are listed here: http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms1.pdf
This question will suspend on December 31 and remain suspended until the data is released, likely in February of '09. Upon which settlement can be determined from the second mentioned chart.
Big Thanks to Jenni for helping with this one.
Category Editor Notation
This market will be suspended for 4-8 weeks awaiting results. This market has been granted an exemption from the standard 7 day rule. Please know that once this market is suspended on December 31, 2008 your wagers will be tied up until the reports are released.
Settlement details:
As reported (http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/MILITARY/ms1.pdf)
Make your prediction!
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Less than 1,450,000 |
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1,450,000 - 1,465,000 |
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1,465,001 - 1,480,000 |
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1,480,001 - 1,495,000 |
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More than 1,495,000 |
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Activity: H$14,621
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 7:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Less than 1,450,000: 10%, 1,450,000 - 1,465,000 : 25%, 1,465,001 - 1,480,000: 30%, 1,480,001 - 1,495,000: 25%, More than 1,495,000: 10%
Action history:
Created Thu 9th Oct 5:26pm PDT by mork
mork
Changed Description Thu 9th Oct 7:55pm PDT by 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
destry: show details ... ,095 from the previous year. <.<br/> <br/> The Monthly Fluctuations ... /personnel/MILITARY/ms2.pdf</a> <><br/> <br/> And the Total ... /personnel/MILITARY/ms1.pdf</a> <><br/> <br/> This question will ... from the second mentioned chart. <.<br/> <br/> Big Thanks to ... for helping with this one..<br/> <br/> <b>Category Editor Notation</b><br/> This market will be suspended for 4-8 weeks awaiting results. This market has been granted an exemption from the standard 7 day rule. Please know that once this market is suspended on December 31, 2008 your wagers will be tied up until the reports are released.
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 7:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...
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score: 10
Washington Post 22 hours ago
Jonathon Cote had fought in the U.S. Army. He was killed in Iraq. But it was far more complicated than that. Washington Post foreign correspondent Steve Fainaru writes: 'To make up the shortfall of not enough troops in Iraq, the government chose to
score: 10
Los Angeles Times 4 days ago
but vocal bloc of hard-line Shiite opponents that the law could be manipulated to keep American soldiers in Iraq indefinitely. And the whole process could still be derailed in July when, in a concession to Sunni Arab parties, a national referendum is to
score: 10
New York Times 1 week ago
admiral and his wife will host a smaller gathering for wounded service members, their families and survivors of military personnel killed in action. An invitation list of more than 1,500 ? including members of the diplomatic corps, foreign and American
score: 10
Christian Science Monitor 1 week ago
Wednesday's vote on a security pact to allow US troops to remain in Iraq for three more years is being seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Maliki's performance. Baghdad - A wave of discontent with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has spilled over
score: 10
Morningstar.com 1 week ago
with two landmark joint projects, the Kaesong industrial estate and the Mount Kumgang tourist resort in the North. Military authorities would 'strictly restrict' border crossings by South Koreans headed for the two projects, the Korean Central News
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