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Created Thu 9th Oct 9:25pm PDT by tisha[Admin]
All questions » Science » Natural Disasters » 

How many M4+ earthquakes will there be on Monday 13 October?

Settled as 11 to 13

12 earthquakes, settled on Wednesday 15 October
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

Background:

This is a standard earthquake market - get in now for some quick hubbucks. The question will not be settled until at least 48 hours after the suspend date (sometimes the site information is updated after the fact).

For reference, here is how many M4+ earthquakes there have been in the past week (who knew that so many minor earthquakes happened on a regular occurrence):

Thursday 9 Oct: 5
Wednesday 8 Oct: 14
Tuesday 7 Oct: 9
Monday 6 Oct: 12
Sunday 5 Oct: 16
Saturday 4 Oct: 11
Friday 3 Oct: 7


We settle according to the USGS link, which uses UTC time and helpfully highlights all the earthquakes with a magnitude of 4+.


Settlement details: As reported by http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php">http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 7 or less
15%
8 to 10
40%
11 to 13
35%
14 or more
11%
Activity: H$3,404
Settled as 11 to 13 on Tue 14th Oct 10:40pm PDT

Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 5pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 14th Oct 10:40pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 7 or less: 20%, 8 to 10: 30%, 11 to 13: 30%, 14 or more: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 9th Oct 9:25pm PDT by tisha[Admin]
Changed Description Thu 9th Oct 9:34pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: ... with a magnitude of 4+.<+. <br/>
Changed Settlement info Thu 9th Oct 9:34pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: show details
... reported by <&lt;a href="<a href="http://earthquake.usgs. ... eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php</a>"><a href="http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php&lt">http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php&lt</a>;/a>.
Changed Suspend date Thu 9th Oct 9:34pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-10-11 16:00:00"
Changed Settlement info Thu 9th Oct 9:36pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: show details
... reported by &lt;a href="<<a href="http://earthquake.usgs. ... /eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php&lt">http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php&lt</a>;/a>.>
Suspended Sun 12th Oct 5pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Description Sun 12th Oct 7:21pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: show details
... happened on a regular occurrence): <):<br/> <br/> Thursday 9 Oct: 5 <<br/> Wednesday 8 Oct: 14 <<br/> Tuesday 7 Oct: 9 <<br/> Monday 6 Oct: 12 <<br/> Sunday 5 Oct: 16 <<br/> Saturday 4 Oct: 11 <<br/> Friday 3 Oct: 7 <<br/> <br/> <br/> We settle ... with a magnitude of 4+. <+.<br/>
Settled as '11 to 13' Tue 14th Oct 10:40pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: 12 earthquakes, settled on Wednesday 15 October
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 5pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 14th Oct 10:40pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 12th Oct 5pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (26)

26 predictions

7 weeks ago
apokalexsys predicted 7 or less (H$20 at 15%)
7 weeks ago
apokalexsys predicted 11 to 13 (H$20 at 35%)
7 weeks ago
apokalexsys predicted 8 to 10 (H$20 at 40%)
7 weeks ago
lamanchica predicted 8 to 10 (H$100 at 39%)
7 weeks ago
lvnmom22 predicted 14 or more (H$20 at 11%)
more

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