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Will Katy Perry Hit #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 again by Dec. 31?

Current forecast: 37% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 37% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Katy Perry seems like a one-hit wonder to me, even though she's charted another song, "Hot N Cold." I think "I Kissed A Girl" will be her biggest hit, and it's all down hill from here.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Billboard Magazine Hot 100 chart.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
37%
No
63%
Activity: H$3,179
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Fri 10th Oct 10:27am PDT by natsthename

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 3:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (18)

18 predictions

1 week ago
natsthename predicted No (H$500 at 62%)
1 week ago
lk47 predicted No (H$250 at 63%)
1 week ago
natsthename predicted No (H$100 at 62%)
3 weeks ago
charliewarlie predicted Yes (H$100 at 38%)
3 weeks ago
hilly predicted No (H$100 at 62%)
more

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