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Will oil (Brent Crude) drop below US$70/barrel by the end of Friday 17 Oct 2008

Settled as Yes

Brent Crude dropped to 68.84 during trading on 10/16

Background:

The oil price has been falling quickly and the US dollar increasing in value. It is becoming clearer to the world that the financial crisis is going to flow into the real economies and this will dampen demand for oil as recession or depression takes hold.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source - Brent Crude index

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
57%
No
43%
Activity: H$80,937
Settled as Yes on Thu 16th Oct 3:52am PDT

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 16th Oct 3:52am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 1:45am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Fri 10th Oct 12:07pm PDT by yoga
Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Oct 3:14am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2008-10-17 19:59:00"
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 1:43pm PDT by bgrigore: Dated Brent Spot price below $70 at 16.08, as reported by Bloomberg
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 5:20pm PDT by buckeyetom: it closed today at $69.58.
Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

I know the time of close was around 1pm MST. I can't pin it down to the minute. Look at the time of the last comment posted to the question, I'd say that was pretty accurated.
Thanks,
Tom
Settlement requested Thu 16th Oct 1:46am PDT by elly: Yes,

High 71.520
Low 68.840

http://www.reuters.com/finance/commodity?symbol=GB@IB.1
Settled as 'Yes' Thu 16th Oct 3:52am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Brent Crude dropped to 68.84 during trading on 10/16

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 16th Oct 3:52am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 1:45am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (80)

80 predictions

6 weeks ago
3mta3 predicted Yes (H$50 at 57%)
6 weeks ago
php_ini predicted No (H$100 at 43%)
6 weeks ago
snem predicted Yes (H$600 at 57%)
6 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted No (H$250 at 43%)
6 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted Yes (H$20 at 57%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 pixelpaws
Well, it's certainly going the wrong way for that; it's up more than $2 in the first hour of trading today.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Current price as of 12:23 PM EDT 10/13 is 75.98
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 Erik
Dated Brent Spot 71.20 -3.60 -4.81 12:23
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 bayoubear[Admin]
It's getting really close....all the price has to do is drop below $70, not close below $70....

Need to pay close attention to the time as well, in order to settle correctly if it does drop more.
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 bgrigore
Dated Brent Spot $69.94 -4.86 -6.50% 16.08
posted 6 weeks ago

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