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Created Fri 10th Oct 7:15pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
All questions » Business » Other » 

Will the DJIA open up on 11/5/08, the morning after the US Presidential election?

Settled as No

DJIA opened lower on 11/5/08, at 9616.60, down 8.68 points

Background:

The market is swinging wildly and predictions are wild guesses at best these days, it should prove interesting to see how the market reacts to the Presidential election though.

This market does not require the outcome of the election to be known. It simply asks what will be the reaction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the events of the previous day, as relates to news regarding the election.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
48%
No
52%
Activity: H$44,532
Settled as No on Wed 5th Nov 10:15am PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 10:15am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 10th Oct 7:15pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Changed Description Sat 11th Oct 2:35am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... to the Presidential election though. <br/> <br/> This market does not require the outcome of the election to be known. It simply asks what will be the reaction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the events of the previous day, as relates to news regarding the election.
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 7:03am PST by drzinternet: http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/indu
Settled as 'No' Wed 5th Nov 10:15am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: DJIA opened lower on 11/5/08, at 9616.60, down 8.68 points

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 10:15am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (91)

91 predictions

3 weeks ago
billbong88 predicted Yes (H$100 at 77%)
3 weeks ago
curios predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 75%)
3 weeks ago
sonofagun predicted Yes (H$100 at 74%)
3 weeks ago
sonofagun predicted Yes (H$100 at 74%)
3 weeks ago
pmilkman predicted Yes (H$100 at 74%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
Concerns were raised about the intent of this question or possible issues regarding settlement. Actually it's quite simple, there's no reason to read more into it than was intended.

The question is simply asking what the market reaction will be to the events of the previous day. Doesn't matter who wins, doesn't matter if the outcome is not known. It's just how will the market react to whatever happens.

Also, question has been moved to Business since it is a index related question.
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
welcome back valornhonor :-)
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 drzinternet
If anyone cares to comment, what are the concerns of intent bayoubear is referring to? Thanks.
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
"The concerns " were raised in a flag for the question, not shown in the comments. Originally the question was placed in politics, because of the political relation to the question, but it was deemed to be more closely related to business. Other concerns were raised regarding when the outcome of the election would be known, but that has nothing to do with this question, since it will simply be determined by the reaction of the market on the morning of the 5th.
posted 4 weeks ago
  5 drzinternet
Thanks
posted 3 weeks ago

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