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US Pres Ohio votes cast... what % of total Ohio adult population?

Settled as 5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President

Ohio is, again, a key battleground state during this year's US Presidential race. A great deal of attention and money is being poured into this contest and both camps are being very "aggressive" for example, please read this article:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10102008/news/politics/1_voter__72_registrations_132965.htm

In the 2004 Presidential election the Republican candidate, Bush, beat his Democratic rival, Kerry in Ohio by a bit more than 2% points. If just 20 citizens per county in Ohio chose to be as "ambitious" as the young Mr. Johnson in the above article, (no relation to me), this would erase a 2% advantage.

This market is looking to forecast how many votes will be cast in Ohio from amongst a pool of adults over age 18 that is estimated to be 8,711,806 persons. I arrived at this number from the census bureau's records @
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html... [8,711,806, 2006 estimate]. I took the state estimated population of 11,478,006 and backed out the estimated 24.1% under the age of 18. In 2004 the vote count was 5,625,631. It seems unlikely that this year's total will be less than this amount.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President
6%
5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres
59%
6,600,001 to 7,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres
14%
More than 7,600,001 OH votes cast for Pres
21%
Activity: H$8,052
Settled as 5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President on Thu 13th Nov 9am PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 13th Nov 9am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President: 20%, 5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres: 44%, 6,600,001 to 7,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres: 30%, More than 7,600,001 OH votes cast for Pres: 6%

Action history:

Created Sat 11th Oct 12:01pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 13th Nov 2:59am PST by pitchedoutsideleg: Looks like less than 5.6 million

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPOH
Settled as '5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President' Thu 13th Nov 9am PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 13th Nov 9am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (32)

32 predictions

6 weeks ago
monkeynacho predicted 5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres (H$50 at 59%)
6 weeks ago
monkeynacho predicted 5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres (H$20 at 59%)
6 weeks ago
monkeynacho predicted 5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres (H$20 at 58%)
6 weeks ago
pitchedoutsideleg predicted 5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres (H$2,500 at 50%)
7 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted More than 7,600,001 OH votes cast for Pres (H$10 at 32%)
more

Comments (13)

Mighty oaks from little acorns grow.......
posted 7 weeks ago
This article has the latest news I could find about this:

Appeals court sides with Ohio secretary of state
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/10/11/appeals_court_sides_with_ohio_secretary_of_state/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+Latest+news
posted 7 weeks ago
I predict that the RATIO of votes cast/population for Ohio will be greater than any other state....
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 smidge76
Just to add to the background info: With the deadline to register for the Nov. 4 election now passed, there are a little under 8.2 million people registered to vote in the state of Ohio (as reported by the Columbus Dispatch on Oct. 7).
posted 7 weeks ago
Amazing, 8.2M registered to vote out of an adult population of about 8.7M..... kudos Ohio for you unusually high level of participation....
posted 7 weeks ago
  6 Erik
Are you sure it's not 8.7M registered to vote out of an adult population of 8.2M?
Vote early and vote often.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 frank2877
The question asks "what % of total Ohio adult population?" And the choices are in total votes cast. Am I the only one who sees a problem with how this question is worded?
posted 6 weeks ago
@ frank2877....

I understand your point, I was constrained by the character count of the question field, there are not enough literal spaces to allow for a better worded question like, "how many million voters in Ohio...", I still think it's amazing that apparently 8.2M out of a potential field of 8.7M Ohioans over age 18 are registered to vote; this equates to more than 92.4%....My strong suspicion is that the registered voters are not a 100% 1 to 1 match to citizens, the ref. article lends credence to this suspicion.
posted 6 weeks ago
  9 smidge76
No, frank, I thought the same thing, but didn't want to nitpick. With the categories set up this way, it would have made more sense to ask how many Ohioans would vote on November 4. However, it isn't like there is any ambiguity in the options -- people know what they are wagering on when the put money on a category, so the question can be settled.
For those who are somewhat interested in the percentages, but not Type A enough to actually do the math, here are the APPROXIMATE percentages for the categories (loosely rounded since settlement will not be based on my numbers) according to the population estimate given by valor:
Less than 64.3%
64.3% to <75.8%
75.8% to 87.25%
Greater than 87.25%

By the way, I actually came here to provide an update to my previous comment:
Secretary Brunner just announced that the eligibility of about a third of the new registrations need to be verified due to inconsistencies. If all of those registrations end up being thrown out, that would reduce the number of registered voters from about 8.2 million to about 8.0 million.
posted 6 weeks ago
  10 smidge76
@valornhonor,
In 2000, there were over 7.5 million registered voters (63.7% actual turnout in Nov). In 2004, there were over 7.9 million (71.7% actual turnout). Given the trend toward increased participation here in Ohio (and elsewhere for that matter), I don't think another 0.3 million valid registrations is too much of a stretch.
posted 6 weeks ago
I hope the buckeye doesn't get a black eye.

Apparently the 200K registrations that seemed to not match Social Security and Driver's records will be allowed to stand, as is.
posted 6 weeks ago
  12 smidge76
First of all, the Supreme Court did not rule that the 200,000 mismatches need to stand as is. The counties have access to the state database and can use it to verify registrations. The issue was over whether or not the state needed to provide each county with a separate list of mismatches. Further, the mismatches do not mean that the registrations aren't valid. There are known to be probelms with the way that the computer system (set up when the GOP had control) matches the data:
** For example, "Brunner said it appears that when new voters provide a driver's license number and it matches motor-vehicle records, the computer still tries to match the Social Security database and a mismatch is returned because the voters left that field blank on their registration."
** In addition, "Voting-rights groups also insisted that studies have shown a large percentage of the mismatches are the results of typos when information is entered into databases or legitimate discrepancies, such as people giving a full name when they register and a shortened name when they get a driver's license."
So, some of the 200,000 registration may be fraudulent, but it isn't necessarily the case that all, or even most of them are. Furthermore, while voter fraud certainly isn't impossible, Ohio's I.D. requirements provide a lot of safeguards on election day even if these registrations stand.
I haven't agreed with Brunner on all of the legal issues here, but she has a point about the GOP waiting until the end of September to make this request. They have a history, here in Ohio, of using 11th-hour tactics like this to wrongfully purge lists in Democratic counties including a massive caging effort targeting Democrats in 2004 (which, despite federal court intervention, is estimated to have prevented nearly twice the number of legitimate votes that are in question this year -- funny that it got far less coverage than this year's fiasco). It's time to move to a bipartisan elections panel, and take the elections oversight duties away from the Secretary of State altogether. Too late for this election, but for such a key swing state it seems like a logical move...which is why I'm sure Ohio will never do it.
posted 6 weeks ago
  13 dieseldog
destry - you have done a fine job settling all 5 (hehe) of the election questions. as i'm sure most HD'rs know i don't always agree with you. i'm still man enough to give credit where credit is do. congradulations on a job well done!
posted 3 weeks ago

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