
US Pres Ohio votes cast... what % of total Ohio adult population?
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10102008/news/politics/1_voter__72_registrations_132965.htm
In the 2004 Presidential election the Republican candidate, Bush, beat his Democratic rival, Kerry in Ohio by a bit more than 2% points. If just 20 citizens per county in Ohio chose to be as "ambitious" as the young Mr. Johnson in the above article, (no relation to me), this would erase a 2% advantage.
This market is looking to forecast how many votes will be cast in Ohio from amongst a pool of adults over age 18 that is estimated to be 8,711,806 persons. I arrived at this number from the census bureau's records @
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html... [8,711,806, 2006 estimate]. I took the state estimated population of 11,478,006 and backed out the estimated 24.1% under the age of 18. In 2004 the vote count was 5,625,631. It seems unlikely that this year's total will be less than this amount.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President |
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5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres |
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6,600,001 to 7,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres |
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More than 7,600,001 OH votes cast for Pres |
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Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 13th Nov 9am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 5,600,000 or less Ohio votes cast for President: 20%, 5,600,001 to 6,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres: 44%, 6,600,001 to 7,600,000 OH votes cast for Pres: 30%, More than 7,600,001 OH votes cast for Pres: 6%
Action history:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapPOH
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 13th Nov 9am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (32)
32 predictions
Comments (13)
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174 settled, 114 voided




Appeals court sides with Ohio secretary of state
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/10/11/appeals_court_sides_with_ohio_secretary_of_state/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+Latest+news
Vote early and vote often.
I understand your point, I was constrained by the character count of the question field, there are not enough literal spaces to allow for a better worded question like, "how many million voters in Ohio...", I still think it's amazing that apparently 8.2M out of a potential field of 8.7M Ohioans over age 18 are registered to vote; this equates to more than 92.4%....My strong suspicion is that the registered voters are not a 100% 1 to 1 match to citizens, the ref. article lends credence to this suspicion.
For those who are somewhat interested in the percentages, but not Type A enough to actually do the math, here are the APPROXIMATE percentages for the categories (loosely rounded since settlement will not be based on my numbers) according to the population estimate given by valor:
Less than 64.3%
64.3% to <75.8%
75.8% to 87.25%
Greater than 87.25%
By the way, I actually came here to provide an update to my previous comment:
Secretary Brunner just announced that the eligibility of about a third of the new registrations need to be verified due to inconsistencies. If all of those registrations end up being thrown out, that would reduce the number of registered voters from about 8.2 million to about 8.0 million.
In 2000, there were over 7.5 million registered voters (63.7% actual turnout in Nov). In 2004, there were over 7.9 million (71.7% actual turnout). Given the trend toward increased participation here in Ohio (and elsewhere for that matter), I don't think another 0.3 million valid registrations is too much of a stretch.
Apparently the 200K registrations that seemed to not match Social Security and Driver's records will be allowed to stand, as is.
** For example, "Brunner said it appears that when new voters provide a driver's license number and it matches motor-vehicle records, the computer still tries to match the Social Security database and a mismatch is returned because the voters left that field blank on their registration."
** In addition, "Voting-rights groups also insisted that studies have shown a large percentage of the mismatches are the results of typos when information is entered into databases or legitimate discrepancies, such as people giving a full name when they register and a shortened name when they get a driver's license."
So, some of the 200,000 registration may be fraudulent, but it isn't necessarily the case that all, or even most of them are. Furthermore, while voter fraud certainly isn't impossible, Ohio's I.D. requirements provide a lot of safeguards on election day even if these registrations stand.
I haven't agreed with Brunner on all of the legal issues here, but she has a point about the GOP waiting until the end of September to make this request. They have a history, here in Ohio, of using 11th-hour tactics like this to wrongfully purge lists in Democratic counties including a massive caging effort targeting Democrats in 2004 (which, despite federal court intervention, is estimated to have prevented nearly twice the number of legitimate votes that are in question this year -- funny that it got far less coverage than this year's fiasco). It's time to move to a bipartisan elections panel, and take the elections oversight duties away from the Secretary of State altogether. Too late for this election, but for such a key swing state it seems like a logical move...which is why I'm sure Ohio will never do it.
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