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Who will win the 2008 Virginia Senate race between Jim Gilmore and Mark Warner?
In a telephone poll done by Public Policy Polling on October 7 and 8, Warner had a 58-31 margin over Gilmore with 11 percent undecided. Warner leads independents by a 66-20 margin. 26 percent of Republicans also said that they would vote for Warner.
Our Campaigns lists Warner leading by a margin of 56-39.
Additional information:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf
http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?id=64267&cat=5
http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=294973
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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Warner wins by more than 30 percent |
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Warner wins by between 20 and 30 percent |
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Warner wins by between 15.00 and 19.99 percent |
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Warner wins by less than 15 percent |
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Gilmore or other candidate wins |
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Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2am PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 9:23am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Warner wins by more than 30 percent: 5%, Warner wins by between 20 and 30 percent: 22%, Warner wins by between 15.00 and 19.99 percent: 22%, Warner wins by less than 15 percent: 14%, Gilmore or other candidate wins: 37%
Action history:
onedave 
joaoxxx: According to OurCampaigns, 0.01% over 30%: http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=294973 (see margin under Republican) onedave: According to the state of Virginia, Warner won by 30.73 percent: 64.73 to 34.
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/07261AFC-9ED3-410F-B07D-84D014AB2C6B/Unofficial/5_s.shtml
joaoxxx: 31.18% margin with 99.91% of precints reporting.. https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2008/07261AFC-9ED3-410F-B07D-84D014AB2C6B/Unofficial/5_s.shtml 
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Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2am PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 9:23am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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