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Will the New York Times Hardcover Non-Fiction Bestseller be a debut for October 26, 2008?

Settled as Last week's #1

1#http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/books/bestseller/besthardnonfiction.html

Background:

For the week of October 19, 2008, the NY Times Hardcover Non-Fiction Bestseller was The Snowball by Alice Schroeder for the 1st week:

http://www.nytimes.com/pages/books/bestseller/index.html

Will next week's #1 be this book, another from the list or a debut?

Initial likelihoods based on results from the last 10 weeks, available here: <a href="http://www.hawes.com/2008/2008.htm">http://www.hawes.com/2008/2008.htm<;/a>, and increasing the Last week's #1 odds since it's a debut and about Warren Buffett.


Settlement details: As reported by the New York Times
<a href="<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/books/bestseller/index.html">http://www.nytimes.com/pages/books/bestseller/index.html<;/a>"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/pages/books/bestseller/index.html<;">http://www.nytimes.com/pages/books/bestseller/index.html<;</a>;/a>
and then select Complete Hardcover Nonfiction List

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Debut
23%
Last week's #1
64%
Last week's #2 or lower
13%
Activity: H$694
Settled as Last week's #1 on Sat 18th Oct 7:28pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 17th Oct 9am PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 7:28pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 17th Oct 9am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Debut: 25%, Last week's #1: 60%, Last week's #2 or lower: 15%

Action history:

Created Sat 11th Oct 2:39pm PDT by gtown
Suspended Fri 17th Oct 9am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 18th Oct 6:53am PDT by gtown: Last week's #1:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/books/bestseller/besthardnonfiction.html
Settled as 'Last week's ' Sat 18th Oct 7:28pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: 1#http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/26/books/bestseller/besthardnonfiction.html

Suspend date: Fri 17th Oct 9am PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 7:28pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 17th Oct 9am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (7)

7 predictions

6 weeks ago
gtown predicted Last week's #1 (H$20 at 64%)
6 weeks ago
gtown predicted Last week's #1 (H$20 at 64%)
6 weeks ago
bency predicted Last week's #1 (H$50 at 64%)
7 weeks ago
gtown predicted Last week's #1 (H$15 at 64%)
7 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted Last week's #1 (H$500 at 62%)
more

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