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Will there be a great earthquake in the US before Christmas with a magnitude 7 or more?

Current forecast: 8% chance 5%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 8% likely to happen (down 5% in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
8%
No
92%
Activity: H$34,628
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Sun 12th Oct 11:41am PDT by mandrellins
Changed Suspend date Sun 12th Oct 7:05pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-12-25 15:59:00"

Suspend date: Wed 24th Dec 3:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (72)

72 predictions

17 mins ago
parcuri predicted No (H$305 at 92%)
1 hour ago
horsefeathers predicted Yes (H$10 at 8%)
1 hour ago
halloweenman666 predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
2 hours ago
fundo predicted No (H$200 at 92%)
2 hours ago
cwcdesign predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
more

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