bigken1 
Will race upset the 2008 US Presidential Election?
Market voided. This market seems to assume that any difference between polling numbers and vote totals will be race related, and I don't think that is a fair way to judge that. If you want to recreate this market, and take race out of the title, and then just see what the difference between polling of gallup daily and actual results that is fine. But I don't like idea of attributing the entire difference to just race.
Background:
There is an effect, called the Bradley effect, named after Tom Bradley, mayor of LA, who was running in 1982 for governor of California. He lost, despite being more than 10 points ahead in the polls.
They think that change was due to a racial effect, wherein people will say one thing in a poll, and then vote another when in a voting booth. So, we will answer this question by comparing the Gallup poll on November 3rd, with the recorded popular vote on Nov. 4th. By taking the difference between McCain and Obama, calling this M-O(V-O). This is a measure of how much McCain gains compared with Obama in the vote compared with the polls, in percentage points.
If the value is near 0, or even less than 0, there is no apparent effect. In Bradley's case, it was > 10%, so the effect was large. It now is a different time, and a different place, but can the effects of racism be so easily erased?
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source, using the Gallup poll before the election and the election results afterwards.
Voided
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M-O(V-O) less than 0 |
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M-O(V-O) less than 5% (and greater than 0) |
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M-O(V-O) less than 10% (and greater than 5) |
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M-O(V-O) greater than 10% |
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Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods: M-O(V-O) less than 0: 20%, M-O(V-O) less than 5% (and greater than 0): 35%, M-O(V-O) less than 10% (and greater than 5): 35%, M-O(V-O) greater than 10%: 10%
Action history:
bigken1 
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Market voided. This market seems to assume that any difference between polling numbers and vote totals will be race related, and I don't think that is a fair way to judge that. If you want to recreate this market, and take race out of the title, and then just see what the difference between polling of gallup daily and actual results that is fine. But I don't like idea of attributing the entire difference to just race.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (1)
1 prediction
onedave![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted M-O(V-O) less than 5% (and greater than 0) (H$20 at 35%)Comments (1)
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