Created Sun 12th Oct 7:19pm PDT by

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How many M4+ earthquakes will there be on Friday October 17th?

Settled as 7 or less

Only 2 earthquakes on Friday the 17th of October.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

Background:

While we're waiting for the finalized results for the Monday market to come through, have a go at predicting this one for Friday.

Latest earthquake news is that a M5.0 earthquake has hit a war-torn region of Chechnya, one day before the regional elections. So far, reports say that 13 people have been killed, including 3 children, and over 100 people injured. Sad stuff :-(

M4+ Earthquake info for the past week:
Sunday 10
Saturday 13
Friday 9
Thursday 5
Wednesday 16
Tuesday 9
Monday 10

We settle earthquake markets according to the USGS link, which uses UTC time and helpfully highlights all the earthquakes with a magnitude of 4+.
These questions are suspended on the day in question, but not settled until at least 48 hours afterwards as sometimes new information is updated after the date.

Settlement details: As reported by http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

7 or less

15%

8 to 10

38%

11 to 13

35%

14 or more

12%

Activity: H$5,201

Settled as 7 or less on Sat 18th Oct 8:55pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 3:59pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 8:55pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 3:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 7 or less : 20%, 8 to 10: 30%, 11 to 13: 30%, 14 or more : 20%

Action history:

Created Sun 12th Oct 7:19pm PDT by

tisha

Suspended Thu 16th Oct 3:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Settled as '7 or less ' Sat 18th Oct 8:55pm PDT by

tisha

: Only 2 earthquakes on Friday the 17th of October.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

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Predictions (20)

20 predictions

6 weeks ago

ejayz predicted 7 or less (H$100 at 15%)

6 weeks ago

lamanchica predicted 11 to 13 (H$100 at 35%)

6 weeks ago

mrperfkt [Admin]

predicted 8 to 10 (H$500 at 36%)

6 weeks ago

bigken1 predicted 7 or less (H$300 at 13%)

6 weeks ago

bigken1 predicted 14 or more (H$300 at 12%)

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