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Will Dow (DJIA) close up the week Oct 13-17?

Settled as Yes

DJIA closed Friday at 8852.22 up about 400 points from last Friday's close of 8451.19

Background:

For now the markets seem to be rebounding after the major world economies met and announced a major coalition to rebuild the crushed financial markets. But the situation is extremely unstable and any tiny mess up or market flux could ruin the current rebound.

Last week the markets fell through the roof, will something go wrong again this week?

To settle as YES DJIA must close above 8451.19, which was last Friday's close.





What will happen this week?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
74%
No
26%
Activity: H$107,615
Settled as Yes on Fri 17th Oct 2:14pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 1pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 17th Oct 2:14pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 1pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 57%

Action history:

Created Mon 13th Oct 6:50am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Mon 13th Oct 8:09pm PDT by notablenotices[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Settlement details are vague
Changed Suspend date Tue 14th Oct 3:32am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2008-10-17 11:00:00"
Unsuspended Tue 14th Oct 3:34am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Settlement clarified, suspension date reset
Suspended Thu 16th Oct 1pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Yes' Fri 17th Oct 2:14pm PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: DJIA closed Friday at 8852.22 up about 400 points from last Friday's close of 8451.19

Suspend date: Thu 16th Oct 1pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 17th Oct 2:14pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 16th Oct 1pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (202)

202 predictions

6 weeks ago
jeffmcneill predicted Yes (H$100 at 72%)
6 weeks ago
brandonpowers predicted No (H$50 at 28%)
6 weeks ago
b52jetdoc predicted No (H$40 at 27%)
6 weeks ago
jetdoc52 predicted No (H$151 at 27%)
6 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$250 at 43%)
more

Comments (6)

The settlement criteria is WAY too vague on this one. What constitutes "something going wrong"? A mild decline from the peak on Monday? Falling below the close from Friday? Quantify this!
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 orlin
It's not so hard. Closing up always has meaned in comparison with the closing of the previous period.
When we talking about a week, closing up the week means clearly compared with the previous week close.
Everything is clear.
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 curios
i do not find this at all vague if you read it, it is very plain.
posted 7 weeks ago
  4 cognos[Power User]
@tomrcraver
The background information is just that, background. Nowhere does it emphasize that something specific has to 'go wrong'. "anything" could go wrong and cause the markets to drop once again. in effect, the idea that the markets had gone down would mean that something has "gone wrong".

I hope this helps.
posted 7 weeks ago
The key statement in bold (now? Can't tell what was edited, but I don't recall seeing it before.) says YES == settles "abover" Friday's close. The background asks "Will something go wrong this week". So the settlement statement says to vote "yes" if you think the market will do ok, and the background question asks if you think the market will have problems - they contradict each other. Sure, I assume the question is based on the "settles as" statement, and that ABOVER means "above / over" - but the background questions shouldn't contradict the settlement statement!
posted 7 weeks ago
There's a question. This is what you bet on. Then, there's optional background reading that can make roaming statements or raise interesting questions.
posted 6 weeks ago

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