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Will the DJIA break a record for daily gain/loss by December 31, 2008?

Current forecast: 24% chance 3%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 24% likely to happen (down 3% in last 1 day)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average set a record for the biggest one-day drop, on September 29, 2008, with a loss of 777.68 points. Two weeks later, on October 13, a record was set for the largest one-day gain, with a 936.42 point increase.

Will the Dow post a one-day loss of more than 777.68 points OR a one-day gain of more than 936.42 points by the end of 2008?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
24%
No
76%
Activity: H$43,817
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 12pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Mon 13th Oct 7:17pm PDT by carnacthemagnificent
Changed Description Tue 14th Oct 3:57am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: ... more than 936.42 points beforeby the end of 2008?

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 12pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (57)

57 predictions

5 hours ago
sqlman predicted Yes (H$20 at 24%)
6 hours ago
wheatjerry predicted Yes (H$100 at 23%)
20 hours ago
shojun predicted No (H$500 at 76%)
1 day ago
youbet predicted No (H$250 at 73%)
1 day ago
bgrigore predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 22%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 mrperfkt[Admin]
Interesting question! At this point...my head is spinning and it seems like a coin toss! :)
posted 7 weeks ago
  2 mrperfkt[Admin]
...and nice picture!
posted 7 weeks ago
+889.35 today. So close!
posted 5 weeks ago

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