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Will John McCain be present at the Capitol in Washington, DC on January 20, 2009?

Current forecast: 77% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 77% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

It may be easy to guess the reasons why John McCain might be present at the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. on January 20, 2009:

- he might be there to be inaugurated as the next President of the U.S.
- he might be there to witness Barack Obama inaugurated as the next President of the U.S.

However there are possible reasons McCain might not be present on that day. These reasons are harder to predict:

- the outcome of the election may postpone the traditional Inauguration Day -- as it did in 2000.
- if McCain is defeated, he may not appear in Washington, D.C.
- health reasons or other unforeseen misfortune may deter him from travelling to the Capitol.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
77%
No
23%
Activity: H$3,960
Question suspends in 6 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 16th Jan 2009 7:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 80%

Action history:

Created Mon 13th Oct 7:32pm PDT by carnacthemagnificent

Suspend date: Fri 16th Jan 2009 7:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (9)

9 predictions

3 weeks ago
mmclaughlin predicted Yes (H$100 at 77%)
6 weeks ago
opie predicted Yes (H$50 at 75%)
7 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted No (H$500 at 24%)
7 weeks ago
matthelm predicted Yes (H$500 at 77%)

Comments (2)

  1 destry[Admin]
@carnac - there was no delay of inauguration in 2000.
posted 7 weeks ago
@destry - there was no delay of inauguration in 2000.

Oops. My wording was incorrect. I meant to say uncertainty in the election as in 2000 (either because of close results, or voting malfunction, or wild rumors of imposed martial law) might delay the inauguration.
posted 7 weeks ago

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