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What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?
Obama +11, Settles as Obama leads by more than 10 points
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111274/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Edges-Higher.aspx
Background:
I've re-distributed the options as most weeks have been closing in the 5-8 range lately. Additionally, the market will suspend a couple hours earlier on Monday.
Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Category Editor Clarification
This market will continue to use the registered voters numbers it has been using since first introduced.
Settlement details:
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
posted near 1300ET on Monday October 20.
If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released Gallup daily poll.
Settled
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Obama leads by more than 10 points |
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Obama leads by 9 or 10 points |
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Obama leads by 7 or 8 points |
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Obama leads by 5 or 6 points |
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Obama leads by 3 or 4 points |
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Statistical tie +/- 2 |
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McCain leads by more than 2 |
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Suspend date: Mon 20th Oct 5am PDT Settlement date: Mon 20th Oct 1:27pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 20th Oct 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by more than 10 points: 12%, Obama leads by 9 or 10 points: 18%, Obama leads by 7 or 8 points: 35%, Obama leads by 5 or 6 points: 18%, Obama leads by 3 or 4 points: 10%, Statistical tie +/- 2: 5%, McCain leads by more than 2: 2%
Action history:
jenniandboys 
chris chris: show details
destry: show details
bigken1: I think the question should have been voided, if it was unclear how it would be settled. Then people could choose to bet on the clarified question.. 
thisson: Barack Obama again leads John McCain nationally by 10 percentage points among all registered voters, 52% to 42%.
Source: http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
gtown: "more than 10 points"
Today's reports an 11 pt lead:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111274/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Edges-Higher.aspx
jenniandboys: Obama +11, Settles as Obama leads by more than 10 points
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111274/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Lead-Edges-Higher.aspx
Suspend date: Mon 20th Oct 5am PDT Settlement date: Mon 20th Oct 1:27pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 20th Oct 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (767)
767 predictions
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korbenvbComments (13)
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More questions by
jenniandboys
265 settled, 16 voided
Which one will the market be settled on please?
Thanks
it's also consistent with previous questions
dragon is a true blue Democrat!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
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