eliminati 
How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?
There were three 500 point swings, 10/15, 10/15, and 10/28 in the time period specified.
Background:
After-hours trading does not count, only the actual reported up/down at the end of regular trading days.
There are 14 days left in the month of October to trade pieces of paper. I'm closing the prediction with one week to go to allow for speculation.
This question refers to the differences between the closing prices of two successive days, not to the differences within a trading session. See comment #2 for more information.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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0 - 500+ point swings |
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1-2 - 500+ point swings |
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3-4 - 500+ point swings |
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5-6 - 500+ point swings |
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7+ - 500+ point swings |
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Suspend date: Fri 24th Oct 11pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 6:41am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 24th Oct 11pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 0 - 500+ point swings: 5%, 1-2 - 500+ point swings: 25%, 3-4 - 500+ point swings: 35%, 5-6 - 500+ point swings: 25%, 7+ - 500+ point swings: 10%
Action history:
eliminati 
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: show detailseliminati: There were 3 movements over 500+ for the time frame of the prediction. eliminati: This still hasn't settled, its at 3, with the three dates being: 10/15, 10/23, 10/28.
You can look up historical charts here: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?sid=.
Or use google finance history.
bayoubear: There were three 500 point swings, 10/15, 10/15, and 10/28 in the time period specified.
Suspend date: Fri 24th Oct 11pm PDT Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 6:41am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 24th Oct 11pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (134)
134 predictions
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jimmsoloComments (7)
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I can't believe 7+ has 29% at this point, it would take a 500 point gain or loss for 6 of the remaining 9 days. Wow. I know the market is volatile, but thats predicting massive and frequent volatility.
7 trading days left.
Still at 19% for zero =)
That will push it to 3.
Also, it seems unlikely that we would see 3 separate 500+ days to push it to the 5/6 category, but certainly not impossible.
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