Created Tue 14th Oct 2008 4:53am PST by

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Settled as 3-4 - 500+ point swings

There were three 500 point swings, 10/15, 10/15, and 10/28 in the time period specified.

Background:

Background: Point swings over 500 used to be incredibly rare, but it is seeming that we are entering a period like the Great Depression, which saw the biggest losses AND the biggest gains (most people remember only the losses).
After-hours trading does not count, only the actual reported up/down at the end of regular trading days.
There are 14 days left in the month of October to trade pieces of paper. I'm closing the prediction with one week to go to allow for speculation.

This question refers to the differences between the closing prices of two successive days, not to the differences within a trading session. See comment #2 for more information.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

0 - 500+ point swings

14%

1-2 - 500+ point swings

37%

3-4 - 500+ point swings

42%

5-6 - 500+ point swings

7+ - 500+ point swings

Settled as 3-4 - 500+ point swings on Sat 1st Nov 2008 5:41am PST

Activity: H$52,443
Predictions: 134
Comments: 7

Suspend date: Fri 24th Oct 2008 10pm PST
Settlement date: Sat 1st Nov 2008 5:41am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 24th Oct 2008 10pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 500+ point swings: 5%, 1-2 - 500+ point swings: 25%, 3-4 - 500+ point swings: 35%, 5-6 - 500+ point swings: 25%, 7+ - 500+ point swings: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 14th Oct 2008 4:53am PST by

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

Changed Description Sat 18th Oct 2008 4:18am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... go to allow for speculation.. This question refers to the differences between the closing prices of two successive days, not to the differences within a trading session. See comment #2 for more information.

Suspended Fri 24th Oct 2008 10pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Fri 31st Oct 2008 3:56pm PST by

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

: There were 3 movements over 500+ for the time frame of the prediction.

Settlement requested Sat 1st Nov 2008 4:30am PST by

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

: This still hasn't settled, its at 3, with the three dates being: 10/15, 10/23, 10/28.

You can look up historical charts here: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/npage/2_3051.html?sid=.

Or use google finance history.

Settled as '3-4 - 500+ point swings' Sat 1st Nov 2008 5:41am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: There were three 500 point swings, 10/15, 10/15, and 10/28 in the time period specified.

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Predictions (134)

1 year ago

brianshort Level 7, Pro (H$4,002)

predicted 1-2 - 500+ point swings (H$100 at 36%)

1 year ago

mlynnc Level 1, Newbie (H$167)

predicted 0 - 500+ point swings (H$50 at 14%)

1 year ago

ryanj

predicted 1-2 - 500+ point swings (H$50 at 35%)

1 year ago

pita_soup Level 13, Psychic (H$61,079)

predicted 1-2 - 500+ point swings (H$20 at 35%)

1 year ago

klausmitte2 Level 11, Legend (H$17,732)

predicted 0 - 500+ point swings (H$369 at 9%)

Comments (7)

guido

Had 2 since Tuesday already so first option is out. Today's down was just 60 shy of another. Monday's continued down should make it 3 though so the first 2 options are already out and my guess is the 3rd won't hold either.

posted 1 year ago

bayoubear [Admin]

This question, as I read it, referred to point swings comparing one day's close to the next day's close, not to movements within the day. As he stated in the background, "Point swings over 500 used to be incredibly rare" and to me that clarifies that he's referring to the day to day changes we've recently been seeing, not movements within the trading day itself. 500 point movements within a trading session, while not common, are also not incredibly rare. Eliminati also contacted me to get this point clarified. I will also make an adjustment to the background to allow everyone to treat the question as the creator intended.

posted 1 year ago

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

As of today, we still stand at ONE, recorded on 10/15. 9 more trading days counting today, Tuesday. Looking like 1-2 or 3-4 will come out on top unless there is some massive upheaval leading up to election week.

I can't believe 7+ has 29% at this point, it would take a 500 point gain or loss for 6 of the remaining 9 days. Wow. I know the market is volatile, but thats predicting massive and frequent volatility.

posted 1 year ago

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

We are now at TWO - 10/15 and 10/22.

7 trading days left.

Still at 19% for zero =)

posted 1 year ago

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

I am hoping that we can see one 500 point swing in the 5 days of trading next week. As volatile as the market has been, the odds are heavily in favor of that happening, be it up or down.

That will push it to 3.

Also, it seems unlikely that we would see 3 separate 500+ days to push it to the 5/6 category, but certainly not impossible.

posted 1 year ago

eliminati Level 15, Seer (H$345,070)

Now, at 3, with 3 days left. With such upward movement today, despite every indicator *except* for new home sales trending downward, I actually expect some major downward trend very soon...but will it be 500+....and will it be this week?

posted 1 year ago

joaoxxx Level 13, Psychic (H$96,034)

If we are at 3, can't you settle right away?

posted 1 year ago

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