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What date will CNN finally give in and push Obama to 270 Electoral Votes or higher?

Settled as On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate)

Despite a mountain of "poll of poll" or "metapolling" results from the two best sites out there - REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM and FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM - CNN refuses to push Obama over the 270 edge.
It is the suspicion of many bloggers that CNN is deliberate in their desire to not put Obama at 270+ to make the election seem closer than it is. I doubt there is such a conspiracy, but nonetheless it is odd that Virginia and Colorado have not been moved at least to "Lean Obama" and shaded light blue.

SETTLEMENT - The day that cnn.com's official electoral map scores Obama at 270 Electoral Votes or higher before midnight of the date range in question.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate)
2%
Thur Oct 16th - Mon Oct 20th
61%
Tue Oct. 21st - Sat Oct 25th
13%
Sun Oct 26th - Thur Oct 30th
13%
Fri Oct 31st - Mon Nov 3rd
6%
Will not put Obama at 270 before Election Day
5%
Activity: H$11,945
Settled as On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate) on Wed 15th Oct 2:58pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 6pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2:58pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Oct 1:40pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate): 5%, Thur Oct 16th - Mon Oct 20th: 30%, Tue Oct. 21st - Sat Oct 25th: 25%, Sun Oct 26th - Thur Oct 30th: 25%, Fri Oct 31st - Mon Nov 3rd: 10%, Will not put Obama at 270 before Election Day: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 14th Oct 3:16pm PDT by eliminati
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 1:41pm PDT by ianochaye: CNN Map now at 277 - whoopee!
Suspended Wed 15th Oct 2:55pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 15th Oct 2:55pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Today
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/15/electoral-map-update-a-red-state-swings-toward-obama/ (market suspended)
Settled as 'On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate)' Wed 15th Oct 2:58pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 6pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 2:58pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 15th Oct 1:40pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (41)

41 predictions

6 weeks ago
jimmsolo predicted On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate) (H$100 at 51%)
6 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate) (H$180 at 50%)
6 weeks ago
posypolkadot predicted On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate) (H$100 at 37%)
6 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate) (H$57 at 4%)
6 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted On or before - Wed Oct 15th (last debate) (H$31 at 4%)
more

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