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Created Tue 14th Oct 9:32pm PDT by jakethesnake
All questions » World » Americas » 

When will Stephane Dion announce that he is stepping down as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada?

Settled as Steps down by or on October 31st

Dion announced his resignation at 2pm EDT on October 20th.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jFU-O_UpVwCQV7DORLwfqllaZGBAD93UCPE00

Background:

With the election on the 14th of October, the liberals have lost over 20 seats and many pundits are predicting that Stephane Dion will step down in the next weeks or months. The Liberal Party has a leadership review which is most likely to be held in May of 2009.
Will Stephane Dion still be leader of the Liberal party then, or will he step down over the next few days or weeks?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Steps down by or on October 31st
94%
Steps down between November 1st and December 31st
3%
Steps down by between January 1st and May 31, 2009
2%
Is still Leader after May 31st 2009
1%
Activity: H$25,864
Settled as Steps down by or on October 31st on Tue 21st Oct 4:09am PDT

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 2009 4:59pm PDT (27 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 21st Oct 4:09am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 20th Oct 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Steps down by or on October 31st: 20%, Steps down between November 1st and December 31st: 30%, Steps down by between January 1st and May 31, 2009: 30%, Is still Leader after May 31st 2009: 20%

Action history:

Created Tue 14th Oct 9:32pm PDT by jakethesnake
Settlement requested Mon 20th Oct 11:41am PDT by jakethesnake: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/10/20/dion-announcement.html
Should be settled as before Oct 31st. Question relates to announcing that he is stepping down, not actually stepping down.
Settlement requested Mon 20th Oct 11:47am PDT by storekeeperathscm: he has announced today that he is stepping down.
Suspended Mon 20th Oct 11:51am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Pending settlement
Settlement requested Mon 20th Oct 2:29pm PDT by evanp: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/election-2008/story.html?id=893867
Settled as 'Steps down by or on October 31st' Tue 21st Oct 4:09am PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Dion announced his resignation at 2pm EDT on October 20th.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jFU-O_UpVwCQV7DORLwfqllaZGBAD93UCPE00

Suspend date: Sun 31st May 2009 4:59pm PDT (27 weeks to go) Settlement date: Tue 21st Oct 4:09am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 20th Oct 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (43)

43 predictions

4 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Steps down by between January 1st and May 31, 2009 (H$1,000 at 9%)
4 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Steps down between November 1st and December 31st (H$1,000 at 26%)
4 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Steps down by between January 1st and May 31, 2009 (H$100 at 2%)
4 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Steps down between November 1st and December 31st (H$1,000 at 8%)
4 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted Steps down by or on October 31st (H$50 at 95%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 evanp
Dion has a press conference scheduled for Monday, 20 Oct. http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/10/17/200393.aspx
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 dragon01
This one is going to garner some discussion as to settlement. The question asks when Dion is going to "announce" (that happened today 20 Oct); NOT 'when is he stepping down'. There were four choices offered with specific dates for 'actually' stepping down. The choices offered do not allow an answer to the question as they are emphatic "Steps down...", as opposed to just an 'announcement' date.
posted 4 weeks ago
  3 paulcroft
The questions states "Announce" whereas the options don't! Someone should have caught it sooner!!! :(
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 jakethesnake
Sorry, when I made it, the word announce didn't fit in to the box. Not enough characters. In retrospect, I should have picked a better word regardless.
posted 4 weeks ago
  5 dieseldog
they settled a question about the fed raising rates by the wording of the question. they discounted the background info. this should settle with first option as the winner. it invovles 2 differnt admins. be interesting to see how this turns out. goodluck betters.
posted 4 weeks ago

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