Created Tue 14th Oct 2008 9:01pm PST by

When will we see a 4 digit drop on the DOW?

Background: When will we first see a 1000+ point drop in one day?

Settlement will be made when this first occurs or after the end of the market, 1/1/2010, if it doesn't happen.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

October 2008

November 2008

December 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Not by 1/1/2010

99%

Question suspends in 1 week

Activity: H$197,838
Predictions: 3726
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 3:59pm PST (1 week to go)

Initial likelihoods: October 2008: 13%, November 2008: 12%, December 2008: 12%, Q1 2009: 12%, Q2 2009: 12%, Q3 2009: 12%, Q4 2009: 12%, Not by 1/1/2010: 15%

Action history:

Created Tue 14th Oct 2008 9:01pm PST by

dowdy

Suspended Tue 14th Oct 2008 11:30pm PST by

kruijs [Power User]

: Flagged by super user: Using the option "never" causes the question to be unable to settle.

Unsuspended Wed 15th Oct 2008 3:04am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: last option corrected

Changed Description Wed 15th Oct 2008 3:10am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: show details

... When will we first see a 1000+ point drop in one day? <br/> <br/> Settlement will be made when this first occurs or after the end of the market, 1/1/2010, if it doesn't happen.

Changed Suspend date Wed 15th Oct 2008 3:10am PST by

bayoubear [Admin]

: was: "2012-10-15 15:59:00"

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Suspend date: Tue 1st Dec 3:59pm PST (1 week to go) details

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Predictions (3726)

4 weeks ago

flamingo Level 11, Legend (H$18,195)

predicted Q4 2009 (H$20 at 1%)

5 weeks ago

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$433,943)

predicted Q4 2009 (H$50 at 2%)

6 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Q4 2009 (H$100 at 4%)

6 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Q4 2009 (H$100 at 4%)

6 weeks ago

tuff_sledding [Power User]

predicted Not by 1/1/2010 (H$2,000 at 92%)

Comments (3)

rogerkni Level 15, Seer (H$433,943)

As long as the Dow is below 10,000, a four-digit drop is almost impossible, because the NYSE's "circuit breaker" will suspend trading when the market declines by 10%.

posted 47 weeks ago

chloeburns Level 12, Guru (H$34,187)

While I agree a 1000+ point drop is unlikely, circuit breakers will not prevent it. If the market falls 10%, a Level 1 halt occurs and trading is suspended but only for 1 hour. A Level 1 halt is almost always followed by continued selling. If the drop occurs in the last 1hr 30min of trading, the market does not halt. It simply continues to trade, presumably down. A 20% drop or Level 2 halt in the last 2hrs of trading will indeed close the market, but at current levels this is 1400 - 1600 points and this question will pay out.

posted 39 weeks ago

hidflect Level 3, Apprentice (H$1,128)

Ahh.. I misread the damn thing and thought it meant a 3(!) digit drop...

posted 5 weeks ago

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