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How long will the new Harper government last?

Current forecast: less than six months. (35% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is less than six months. with a probability of 35% (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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less than six months.
35%
more than six months but less than a year.
13%
more than a year but less than two years.
20%
more than two years.
31%
Activity: H$11,761
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: less than six months.: 15%, more than six months but less than a year.: 15%, more than a year but less than two years.: 30%, more than two years.: 40%

Action history:

Created Wed 15th Oct 2008 8:31am PDT by storekeeperathscm

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 3:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (27)

27 predictions

2 weeks ago
horsefeathers predicted more than six months but less than a year. (H$10 at 13%)
3 weeks ago
hopehopehooray predicted less than six months. (H$100 at 35%)
4 weeks ago
jakethesnake predicted more than six months but less than a year. (H$100 at 12%)
4 weeks ago
jakethesnake predicted less than six months. (H$100 at 49%)
4 weeks ago
teamdiscoverychannel predicted less than six months. (H$50 at 48%)
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