What will be the adjusted monthly report for retail/food services sales for October 2008?
Sales were down well over 1.50%
"Sales slumped 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $363.7 billion, the largest decline since the series began in 1992, the U.S. Commerce Department said."
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AD3W020081114
Background:
Reports released on October 15 pushed the markets back down as the September figures were lower than those of August and also lower than last September. The advanced estimates were 1.2% lower than those of August, 2008, and 1.0% lower than September of 2007.
The government's report that retail sales plunged in September by 1.2 percent --almost double the 0.7 percent drop analysts had expected-- made it clear that consumers are unlikely to reach for their wallets in the coming months as they worry about a shaky economy.
How will the reports look for the October report, due for release in mid-November.
Settlement will be based on the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for October which is scheduled to be released November 14, 2008 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
| Sales up over 1.50% |
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| Sales up 1.01% to 1.50% |
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| Sales up 0.51%-1.00% |
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| Sales up 0.01%-0.50% |
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| Sales down 0.00%-0.49% |
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| Sales down 0.50%-0.99% |
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| Sales down 1.0%-1.50% |
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| Sales down over 1.50% |
|
Suspend date: Wed 12th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Fri 14th Nov 2008 7:08am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 12th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Sales up over 1.50%: 2%, Sales up 1.01% to 1.50%: 5%, Sales up 0.51%-1.00%: 7%, Sales up 0.01%-0.50%: 12%, Sales down 0.00%-0.49%: 20%, Sales down 0.50%-0.99%: 24%, Sales down 1.0%-1.50%: 20%, Sales down over 1.50%: 10%
Action history:
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: show detailsbayoubear: show detailsbayoubear: Sales were down well over 1.50%
"Sales slumped 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $363.7 billion, the largest decline since the series began in 1992, the U.S. Commerce Department said."
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AD3W020081114
Suspend date: Wed 12th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Fri 14th Nov 2008 7:08am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 12th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Get widget!Predictions (63)
63 predictions
supi
predicted Sales down over 1.50% (H$100 at 35%)
gtown
predicted Sales down over 1.50% (H$20 at 40%)
opie
predicted Sales down over 1.50% (H$20 at 39%)Comments (0)
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