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Who will win the German 2009 Presidential Election?

Current forecast: Horst Köhler (81% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Horst Köhler with a probability of 81% (unchanged in last 1 day)

An indirect presidential election will be held in Germany on 23 May 2009.

The incumbent Horst Köhler (supported by CDU/CSU and FDP) will stand for reelection and will face Gesine Schwan (supported by SPD, Alliance '90/The Greens and the Left).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_presidential_election,_2009


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Horst Köhler
81%
Gesine Schwan
15%
Someone else
3%
Activity: H$24,941
Question suspends in 19 weeks

Suspend date: Fri 22nd May 2:59pm PDT (19 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Horst Köhler: 47%, Gesine Schwan: 47%, Someone else: 6%

Action history:

Created Wed 15th Oct 2008 1:35pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Changed Question text Wed 15th Oct 2008 2:26pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: ... the German 2009 Presidential Election?

Suspend date: Fri 22nd May 2:59pm PDT (19 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (109)

109 predictions

12 hours ago
americube predicted Horst Köhler (H$20 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
gottharddanae predicted Horst Köhler (H$100 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
grzebeta predicted Horst Köhler (H$50 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
ffmobscure predicted Horst Köhler (H$200 at 80%)
4 weeks ago
cheese predicted Someone else (H$20 at 3%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 pixelpaws
2009 ... German election. Oh.
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
TV detective actor for president! That sounds fun
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
something like wild-west films actor for president?
or axxxion film actor for governor, right?

that _is_ fun, lol !
posted 12 weeks ago
There is either a chance for Gesine Schwan nor for the "Tatort"-Crime-series actor. Nobody even remember his name ;)
Horst Koehler is very popular in Germany and he has allready the majority in "Bundesversammlung" as the institution which votes the president.
posted 9 weeks ago

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