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When will the Channel Tunnel repairs be completed?

Current forecast: February 2009 (56% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is February 2009 with a probability of 56% (unchanged in last 1 day)

On 15 October, the Channel Tunnel operator Eurotunnel signed a deal with a consortium of construction companies to repair the damage caused when a lorry caught fire near the French entrance last month. The fire closed the tunnel between Kent and Calais for two days and there has been a reduced rail service ever since. Repairs are expected to cost £47m and be completed by February – seven months after the blaze.

What happened inside the tunnel?
On 11 September, a lorry shuttle train was carrying 17 vehicles from France to England. It was about seven miles into the tunnel, just over a fifth of the way through, when automatic smoke detectors warned that one of the lorries was on fire. Investigators still do not know what caused the blaze but they suspect the vehicle's braking system overheated and set one of its tyres alight. There were 32 people aboard the train at the time and all were quickly ferried to safety. Most were lorry drivers, travelling in a club car at the front of the train. When the club car and locomotive were removed from the damaged tunnel earlier this month, Eurotunnel made sure there were witnesses on hand to determine that the fire had not spread quickly enough to do any damage to either – thereby emphasising that neither the lorry drivers nor the train crew were in any real danger during the incident.

For a fascinating article with more information about the Channel Tunnel, click here.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If no news by suspend date, question will settle as 'April or later'

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Before February 2009
8%
February 2009
56%
March 2009
26%
April 2009 or later
9%
Activity: H$4,252
Question suspends in 11 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 1st Apr 12:59am PDT (11 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before February 2009: 10%, February 2009: 58%, March 2009: 20%, April 2009 or later: 12%

Action history:

Created Wed 15th Oct 2008 4:52pm PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 1st Apr 12:59am PDT (11 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (8)

8 predictions

1 day ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted March 2009 (H$500 at 22%)
3 days ago
oppugner predicted February 2009 (H$1,000 at 58%)
12 weeks ago
chris[Admin] predicted February 2009 (H$400 at 50%)
12 weeks ago
chris[Admin] predicted Before February 2009 (H$700 at 15%)
12 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted April 2009 or later (H$50 at 12%)
more

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