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Who will win the National Book Award for Fiction?

Settled as Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country

The National Book Awards are among the most eminent literary prizes in the United States. Started in 1950, the awards are presented annually to American authors for literature published in the prior year, as well as lifetime achievement awards including the "Medal of Distinguished Contribution to American Letters" and the "Literarian Award". The purpose of the awards is "to raise the cultural appreciation of great writing in America." In 1988 the National Book Foundation was established which now oversees and manages the National Book Awards. Source

This years nominees include a lot of depressing stories of tragedy and despair. Read more about the nominees here.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Aleksander Hemon's The Lazarus Project
17%
Rachel Kushner's Telex From Cuba
11%
Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country
40%
Marilynne Robinson's Home
19%
Salvatore Scibona's The End
13%
Activity: H$4,687
Settled as Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country on Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:31pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 19th Nov 2008 8:59am PST Settlement date: Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:31pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 19th Nov 2008 8:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Aleksander Hemon's The Lazarus Project: 20%, Rachel Kushner's Telex From Cuba: 20%, Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country: 20%, Marilynne Robinson's Home: 20%, Salvatore Scibona's The End: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 15th Oct 2008 5:41pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Wed 15th Oct 2008 5:50pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2008-11-19 00:59:00"
Changed Question text Wed 15th Oct 2008 5:50pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: ... win the National Book Award for Fiction?
Suspended Wed 19th Nov 2008 8:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country' Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:31pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 19th Nov 2008 8:59am PST Settlement date: Wed 19th Nov 2008 7:31pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 19th Nov 2008 8:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (49)

49 predictions

7 weeks ago
hoernla predicted Salvatore Scibona's The End (H$20 at 13%)
7 weeks ago
hubdubbob predicted Salvatore Scibona's The End (H$104 at 13%)
7 weeks ago
gtown predicted Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country (H$20 at 45%)
10 weeks ago
orchidnyc predicted Salvatore Scibona's The End (H$50 at 14%)
10 weeks ago
davew predicted Peter Matthiessen's Shadow Country (H$2 at 33%)
more

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