How many people will watch Barack Obama's primetime address on 10/29?
New York –October 30, 2008 – On Wednesday October 29, 2008 the Obama campaign purchased a half hour of prime time television on CBS, FOX, NBC, Univision, BET, MSNBC, and TV One to present a program produced by the campaign. The sum of the audiences for these seven networks was 33,553,000
Background:
How many people will watch? This will settle on Nielsen numbers across however many networks carry the spot. Initial odds are relatively flat because I'm really not sure.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source based on Neilsen reporting.
Settled
| Less than 10 million |
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| 10 million to less than 20 million |
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| 20 million to less than 30 million |
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| 30 million to less than 40 million |
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| 40 million to less than 50 million |
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| 50 million or more |
|
Suspend date: Wed 29th Oct 2008 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 30th Oct 2008 5:38pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 29th Oct 2008 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Less than 10 million: 5%, 10 million to less than 20 million: 15%, 20 million to less than 30 million: 25%, 30 million to less than 40 million: 25%, 40 million to less than 50 million: 15%, 50 million or more: 15%
Action history:
coolkraft
: http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-ad-rating.html 
dmkuhl
: the neilson ratings have it at 30.1 million viewers.
http://www.thrfeed.com/2008/10/obama-ad-rating.html
nadine_dr_computer
: http://www.comcast.net/articles/tv/20081030/Obama.Ad.Ratings/
this says 36 millon
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: 33.5 million from Nielson press release
http://tvbythenumbers.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/media_alert5.pdf
destry
: New York –October 30, 2008 – On Wednesday October 29, 2008 the Obama campaign purchased a half hour of prime time television on CBS, FOX, NBC, Univision, BET, MSNBC, and TV One to present a program produced by the campaign. The sum of the audiences for these seven networks was 33,553,000
Suspend date: Wed 29th Oct 2008 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 30th Oct 2008 5:38pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 29th Oct 2008 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (229)
229 predictions
frogchop
predicted 30 million to less than 40 million (H$20 at 11%)
dogmacentral
predicted 40 million to less than 50 million (H$100 at 28%)
theonecalledmichael
predicted 30 million to less than 40 million (H$100 at 10%)
predicted 50 million or more (H$500 at 65%)
johnoday
predicted 40 million to less than 50 million (H$50 at 19%)
joaoxxx
predicted 40 million to less than 50 million (H$39 at 19%)
predicted 50 million or more (H$50 at 64%)
youbetComments (30)
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jenniandboys
280 settled, 18 voided
Buying that time is very clever, but they better have some great ideas to put into a half hour time slot. If it's boring or worse -- just another advert -- it could prove fatal, rather than a gold star on his forehead. Somehow, I think they have this figured out, and I'm going to watch it...After all, the attraction is: Barack Obama is going to debate himself! And this is really "winner take all" stuff...
Pres. debate I - 57M viewers
Pres. debate II - 63M
VP debate - 70M
I think its safely in the 20-50 million category, but no clue within there.
If this is an infomercial, it's going to be a drastic mistake...If this is a primetime tv special with impressive guests and tight editing, it will be GENIUS...Maybe he will showcase the Middle Class that he has been promoting...Anyway, count my Nielsen viewership IN...
uhh, no... don't uhhh worry. uh Barack has uhhh his ways of uhhh filling in the time.
this says 36 million
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