Will President Obama be assasinated within the first year of his tenure?

Techumseh's curse eh? One of my ancestors was Richard Johnson, US Vice President.....

You cannot have markets on people's lives. This is disgusting. It should (will) be suspended. The user should be banned, and sent to counseling.

jeffmcneill is right. This is a death pool of the most despicable kind...Where is our patriotism, our freedom of speech, so that we can elect a politician of our choice and presume that his life will not be taken from him in payment...

The fact that all visible hubdubbers who placed bets on this question indicated "no", is no excuse. This unfortunate question reminds us that the answer could be "yes"...and everyone is too ashamed of the possibility to say "yes"...

Randburg, your sounding awfully hypocritical. You claim that we have a freedom of speech but when we try to excercise it you condemn us. I think its up to us to decide where our morales lie not you. Im sorry but why do you think you have the right to tell us where our morales should be? Claiming that this is "despicable" is truly a step to far. To think that Obama might be assassinated may be silly but if we want to think that you dont have the right to tell us that we shouldnt.

I would like to see Hubdub ban all death pools. Freedom of speech does not mean that Hubdub needs to allow such betting opportunities. I agree with jeff mcneill and randburg. The idea of betting on people's lives is indeed disgusting to me. It seems to me that suggesting the idea of an assassination might help to place that idea into the minds of unstable individuals who might be inclined to carry it out. That would be a horrible outcome that I don't want any part of. I will personally no longer bet on any individuals' deaths (including legal executions).

You claim that "suggesting the idea of an assassination might help to place that idea into the minds of unstable individuals who might be inclined to carry it out.". With that logic, we shouldnt teach world war 2 in schools. Or genocide. . I think that the notion that if we mention it someone might take it seriously is a twisted way of pushing your own morales onto someone else. If you have a problem with death polls congratulations! You just proved that you want us to be ignorant to a very real aspect of life just because it may offend you!

@dragonfangxl: The idea of assassinating a US President does offend me and I would prefer not to see that question available for play money betting here on this site, for entertainment purposes. If H's administrators ban such questions, you would be completely free to post your thoughts on many other online sources. I'm just hoping that we here can have some limits about such things. It's not up to me though, it's up to H's owners and administrators.

WW2 and genocide did happen. IMO, history should be taught as accurately as possible (search H under "Bette" if you want proof of my opinions about such things!) But suggesting that a vile act might be carried out in the present time is dangerous. Murders and assassinations are often followed by copycats. Why would anyone want to even possibly encourage that sort of thing, just to entertain ourselves (which is what this site does now) or to profit by it (as real money sites do)?

You don't have to accept my morals, but I do have my free speech right to express them. Glad we are having this discussion.

> I would like to see Hubdub ban all death pools.

I heartily disagree. Prediction markets like HubDub are some of the best tools we have for predicting future events, and potential deaths are some of the most important events to try to predict (and hopefully help avert).

You have a freedom of speech and you have every right to not want to go to this. However you proposed a "ban of all death polls". That is clearly moving things to beyond you and to other people. Your pushing your own views onto other people when, if they bet on this, it clearly shows that your views differ. And since you agree that history should be taught you are basically saying we should not be ignorant to a very real aspect of life. That is exactly my point here. Death and assasinations do happen. Death happens every minute of every day and while assassinations arent quite that common they do happen! Closing our eyes and hiding in a corner to the possibility of this happening is not a feasible thing to do! And it certainly is not going to increase the odds that it happens!
Im sure that no one is going to assassinate obama just because they hear it here. The idea that that is going to happen isnt some hidden thing that unstable people arent able to concote themselves. You claim that " Murders and assassinations are often followed by copycats. " However if that did happen, or someone tried to do it then it is going to make front page of every paper in the country and anything we did to try and keep the news down isnt going to work!

The death rate is one per person. We're all going to make it.

When I expire and assume room temperature, it probably wont be reported, but in the unlikely event that my passing on is newsworthy, please feel free to wager on my demise.

Id bet on that! I bet every penny i own that Fof is going to die one day! And dont worry fof, your death will be reported... on hubdub!

Hubdub is not a public place like a sidewalk. It is not a newspaper that has a certain duty and expectation to provide opportunities for its readers to express their opinions. It is a privately owned site that is open to the public for a particular purpose, which is does not necessarily mean the airing of every possible opinion or the posting of questions on every possible subject. Hubdub has every right to decide what types of questions it wants to allow or disallow, so long as it does not violate laws etc. Hubdub already bans certain types of questions.

Disallowing questions about certain matters does not mean being blind to the existence of such matters. There used to be such a thing called "good taste". If I owned or administered Hubdub, I'd want to have a good amount of that on my site. Mostly, H does. It also allows a good amount of freedom among its users. Should that freedom have certain limits? IMO, yes.

Just because a person can do something, doesn't mean you should. What's the difference? Well, people have called that "morals" and "character".

Newspapers are run by the private sector and thus have more in common with hubdub than you think.

What dragon and others are trying to state is that America was founded on the grounds that its people would fall in love with the culture of freedom. In this respect, it is plenty fine for private industries to create their own conditions with their own products. However, do not forget that the hubdub community can be likened to a sample of the population. By erasing certain forms of speech, it would be skewing our culture of freedom (in terms of speech, not private sectors).

This can all be summed up with, if you don't like it - ignore it. They're just words, and personal responsibility should be placed higher on the priority list for the citizens of America. The more blame is placed on higher powers, the less the individual becomes aware of their own control.


objectivism and libertarianism

I'll copy a comment I left in another market deemed despicable: http://www.hubdub.com/m14049/Where_will_the_next_accident_occur_with_more_than_100_fatalities

We spent quite a while discussing this topic back in March... I'll direct you to a couple places where that discussion occurred:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_American_soldiers_will_be_killed_in_Iraq_in_February_2008_1531/view
http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/02/21/a-question-of-morality/
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/a_question_of_morality

To summarize: you are not alone. Many people are uncomfortable about betting on troops dying, celebrities overdosing and planes blowing up. On the other hand, they are valid news and this is a news prediction site. As long as the market is tied to a valid news story, Hubdub has decided to allow the market to run. Hopefully, you can find lots of other markets that interest you and avoid those you find distasteful. //end quote

Voting yes here is not saying that you hope Obama will be assainated but a measure of America's (in)tolerance. Many great reformers and leaders have been assainated: MLK, JFK and John Lennon as a simple cross section. There is a sad but undeniable truth that as America's first black president he faces a very real threat and this market, in part, tries to quantify that threat.

...a better question might be "Will it be reported that a hit was ordered on President Barack by someone in the Bush Administration before leaving office?".....

That raises an interesting Constitutional question. If the President Elect is shot before taking office who becomes President? The Vice President Elect or do we have a new election?

And I agree with jenniandboys, if you're allowed to bet on U.S. combat casualties you can certainly bet on an assassination or an attempted one.

@ jenni -- Please refresh my memory: didn't we all agree before -- under the American soldiers in Iraq question -- that death pool questions were going to be limited to a special place on hubdub? This question is currently under Politics: Election 2008?

@tocm stop coming back and then leaving. If your going to keep up this sharade of a embargo of hubdub then at least stick to your guns or give up completly.
@frank if its before he is sworn in and before the election then the democratic party has that long to get a new canidate up and ready. If its before he is sworn in and after the election then he loses, no new election, and second place gets it. If its
@jennieandtheboys im sorry however no one is going to assassinate obama. If they were they would be doing it right now while his security is at its lowest, and the democratic party would suffer majorly without being able to recover from the assassination. Why would they wait tell his security triples in numbers and gets a 100X larger in budget? Obama is not going to be assasinated so stop worrying.

@frank sorry i acidentally cut myself off. If its after hes sworn in then VP gets it.

randburg - i don't wager on these kind of death questions. if one choose's to thats their right. i came to HD at the end of the death pool debate. whatever was agreed to wasn't put in the rules. if it was i can't find it. if there is such an "agreement" it should be annouced and put in the rules imho.

I created a corresponding question for McCain:

http://www.hubdub.com/m19400/Will_John_McCain_be_assassinated_within_the_first_year_of_his_tenure_if_elected_as_US_president

Thank you neuroexmachina! Since you already have the "pattern" question and can form other questions from it, how about assassination questions for Gordon Brown, Harper in Canada, and whoever is the current Emperor of Scotland...Brown and Harper are both very topical at the moment and Scotland will be soon. And how about a "shootout" question for "Sarah Get Your Gun" Palin?

Official rules on death related questions: http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion
"If the question is potentially contentious (e.g. about loss of life) then it must be in the context of a mainstream news story."

There was some talk about relegating such questions to a different category but, no, it was never decided on.

Concerning Obama this question IS valid (re. KKK announcements: http://www.google.com/search?q=obama+assassination+kkk )
Concerning McCain (or anyone else), I doubt it.

Oh, and here
http://www.hubdub.com/m14720/Will_there_be_an_ACTUAL_assassination_attempt_on_any_Presidential_candidate_before_October_31_2008

I obviously don't want this to happen but I think it will. I'm honestly surprised he made it this far and if he's elected he probably wont make it to inauguration. I assume that this question starts at his inauguration.

I think this question is a little bit slimy myself and MAY reflect a sense that because Barack Obama is black, he's more likely to face an assassination attempt. That's what bugs me about it. Why not erase this and change it to, "Will the next elected president be assassinated?"

jsevigny,

"MAY reflect a sense that because Barack Obama is black, he's more likely to face an assassination attempt"

Of course that's what it means. The fact is that there has long been a sense (especially in the black community) that the first black president would be assassinated. The thing is that white people are the only ones who seem to take offense at that notion. Hell, I know a bunch of people (black people) who wont vote for Obama because they think he's a terrorist.

Wasn't Malcom X assassinated by a black person?

I think that all three of the guys who assassinated Malcolm were black. I'm pretty sure they were also all members of the Nation of Islam.

Please suspend this question. We should not even get these thoughts in out mind.

http://meetglad.blogspot.com/

Great question nosferatu. I don't know what everyone's whining about.

@dragon
I'm actively engaged, just keeping my comments brief....in no way am I boycotting hubdub or "embargo" as you put it, but thanks for being concerned. We still need to get into that technology debate one night... I think your best solution is to just buy a playstation3....

I think this question is relevant for any presidential candidate, but I do think it has a racial edge to it. BUT, his life has been threatened in this campaign. I'd like to see an equal time question about McCain.... ALSO, if he or mccain are killed in some mass attack, it may be unclear if it is indeed an assassination...I'll leave that to jenni to sort out....

"Of course that's what it means."

If that's the case, why isn't it mentioned in the details? It's almost as if Nos intentionally left it out.

I'm just curious. If Obama is a terrorist, as "a bunch of black people" think, what are the likely consequences of that? He hires people to attack the Empire State Building? Heck, there are a bunch of people who think Bush did just that :)

Let me spell it out for you then: Barrack Obama is the first black candidate for president who actually might have a shot at winning. He also has been getting death threats. Read the links posted by kruijs above for information on those.

I think that Barrack Obama's name has a lot to do with the perception that he's a terrorist. If his name was Marcus Washington or Leon Jackson he wouldn't have a problem.

@ddog - The Rules at 2.2.5:
'If the question is potentially contentious (e.g. about loss of life) then it must be in the context of a mainstream news story.'

http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion

Look there are several reasons why Obama is not going to be assasinated,
1: Ever since the terror level was raised, the secret services budget was nearly tripled! They have the best technology, powers over civilians that even the military doesnt have, numbers, and skill on there side. No one is getting by them. They even have special bomb proof vests that cost 25 million a peice and dont make them stick out to much in a crowd.
2: The kkk is in all senses of the word dead. There numbers drop down to new lows every day. Last year i think they were dropping at a rate of 4 members a week and were down to about 50 people nation wide. They are not in a position to kill anyone.
3: Obamas security right now is as low as its going to get. If he wins presidency he will have the full attention of the secret service making him nearly untouchable. If any assassin who had any inkling of what he was doing was trying to kill obama he would have done it by now.
So vote without fear, obama is defintly not going to be assassinated.

And if his name was Alan Keyes I would vote for him.
http://www.alankeyes.com/

tisha/jenni - thanks for the info.

dragonfangxl
even if the organization consists of one single person, this one single person could still kill someone else.

1 single person isnt going to get past the secret service. James Bond couldnt get past the secret service alone. If someone was to attempt it he would need 1 of 3 choices:
1: A large network of spies in the government, possibly a few people in the secret service themselves, and about 5 million dollars.
2: A large gang of people, possibly a 100, armed with the latest bullet proof vests, top of the line training, and large guns to surround the building and attack openly
3: 10 people and a bunch of suicide bombs.
3 is chancy, 2 better be in and out fast or else youll be surrounded, 1 take a long time, a lot of money, and a lot of patience. a single person wouldnt be able to accomplish those things.

dragon - john hinkley operated alone if i'm not mistaken.

That was the old days. Now-a-days the secret service is much more advanced, and with a much bigger budget. If that man tried it against todays secret service he would never have made it.

What about the small private militia armies that we read about, around the United States? You don't think they might be a threat? I would presume that they are carefully monitored, but they are still operative? And as kruijs indirectly suggests: with an army of 100, ninety-nine could create a diversion, while it only takes one to get through...

There is a Chinese curse that says: MAY YOU LIVE IN INTERESTING TIMES...

See here for functionality suggestions about taking contentious questions off the front page http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/Hiding_contentious_questions_173

If one man really wished to act harm on a presidential candidate, I feel like he wouldn't have much trouble. The less people act to conspire in such an act, the more difficult it would be for the government to catch on. We can only hope that security on the grounds is good enough watch out for both candidates. Unfortunately, I feel as though Obama is much more danger than McCain.

While I don't believe there will be a successful assassination, I just hope that Obama isn't too rattled by the threat of such an act. While I don't want him to win, I would still love to see him elected through democratic procedures and without his fluidity being broken by anxiety.

i agree with rob. i saw a show on the secert service, and the guy admitted they can't predict the prez from all dangers. he said if some wacko wants to harm the prez he could, but he will be caught ASAP. unless you keep the prez locked up in the whitehouse theres no way to keep him 100% safe.

Heres the thing, the secret service works on two levels. The first level is there ability to protect a president (which is strong) there second level is for people to think there protecting the president. If all of Bushes enemies thought that they had a chance then they might try over and over again until they succeded. The secret service may defend against 10 attempt, or maybe even a 100 attempts but eventually one would get lucky. You have to think that if you did attack the president that you would be stops and arrested. And that is why they are so effective at there job. And Obama is in no more danger than McCain. The KKK is tiny and poor. They are not going to be able to hire an army of 100 as randburg suggested, thats ridiculous to even consider. The few clinging members of the KKK are poor old fools. I think Obama is safe and that regard.

Southern California's white supremacists gangs are much more powerful than the KKK and their tendency to commit violent acts is greater.
"Obama is in no more danger than McCain" are you kidding me?

I have to agree with Dragon. When I worked for the Communist press, I covered a number of events attended by Janet Reno, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton and others. A local reporter can hardly get near the president to ask a question without getting tackled. Three years ago, I covered the Summit of the Americas in Ft. Lauderdale and photographed Condie Rice. The security measures are extremely sophisticated. We all had to go into the room where she was going to speak several hours beforehand while the secret service people checked out the entire convention center and evicted everyone not invited to the press converence. Once inside, there were little pieces of tape on the ground with our names on them. We weren't allowed to step off those little pieces of tape. After Condie spoke for like six minutes, she left, and we had to wait another two hours before we could leave the room.

Could someone kill the president? I think it's possible. But he would likely die in the process. Hinkley acted alone but didn't get away with it.

@potatp Ive seen some pretty violent actions by anti white groups who are much more well staffed and well funded. Plus anyone who does anything against them is convicted of hate crimes. I think they have a greater chance of killing McCain than these so called "powerful" white supremacists gangs in southern california.

some bookies are not paying out, just yet
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081108/od_uk_nm/oukoe_uk_usa_obama_australia_betting;_ylt=AllmtbmMwRsk2t4JKHf2vAntiBIF

If he does die those are the ones to blame.

I'm not saying the unthinkable couldn't happen, but I've had the pleasure of knowing a two Secret Service guys who work on Presidential detail, and I'll say without condition that they are the most well-trained, intelligent, savvy, coordinated, serious-minded, and professional people I've ever met in my life. In *any* walk of life. IOW, he'll be safe.

Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley and JFK. And they were all white.

i really despise this question....almost as much as i despise the people in Maine who were running the assasination pool. hubdub should have more taste than they do in maine!

http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=223484&ac=PHnws

Even the Maine state legislature was smart enough to condemn the sign!
Suggest HUbDub do something.
Instead of ignore it

Here is a good link to an article about Hubdub on The Independent, death markets happen to be part of this article as well.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/online/hubdub-the-virtual-bookie-for-timewasting-news-junkies-1030828.html

A single ninja with a well placed pretzel could take out the president. They almost got Bush!

Yes, it would take a DEATH POOL question to get us into OUR PARTNER'S publication: THE INDEPENDENT. Some partner if it takes a really gross tasteless sensational subject to get publicity...And this week has been the 45th anniversary of the assassination of Kennedy. Do you know what the word "assassination" has in common? A lot of "ass"es.

GO FOT IT nadine_dr_computer! Even the Maine State Legislature has better taste than this!

CHECK THIS OUT:

The author of this question has been on hubdub more than five weeks and authored two questions about a possible Obama assassination: this one OPEN and another VOID. There is no other activity on this account: NO comments, NO predictions, NO friends...just the one open question in five weeks. Why would someone open an account soley to post this question??

This sounds like either a test market OR a fake account. Which is it? I presume this comment will cause "artificial activity" to take place immediately...

You all i hope have read,
Destry link ? i hope you have as it gives an reporters view on hubdub he certainly slates us ,if you read all the article ,it is interesting insight in to us all. but i will not wager on these really evil kind of questions i do blame the admin for letting these to be let though (just my opinion) this is not the hubdud i joined ,it is what it has allowed to become!!!!

(141,940 ghoules)on looking at the voided one it does not suprise me who help this person to make this icluding what you read above , there is no doubt it was done well out of this my cashing in. and some have added to there wager.

I beleive Freedom of Speech does not apply in this situation. If it did, then various obscenities would not be editied on this site. This is a privately owned site (non US Government)therefore the indvidual who own this site have control over what may or may not be said/written on it.
I am surprised that a young business would be so blatantly disgusting as to allow death polls of any kind. But then again, this question is like Sarah Palin, it to will die in the wilderness of ignorance and racism.

I to am astonished at your naivety in allowing this given that the question creator has done nothing else on the site apart from create this question. This isn't about freedom of speech, it's about not being complete bloody idiots. If this was from a regular user who has created other questions and participated in the site, maybe. But as it stands it should be an absolute no-brainer.

Agreed. Strike it. I'm not tying my monopoly money up for a year anyway.

He's a goner - anti-war and anti-corporate means that the real rulers of the country will have him disappear within a year.

I agree with most comments here. Poor question number one and secondly, even though I am not a President Obama fan, I would never wish, that the President or any leader, would be assasinated. I also will not predict on this question.