Created Thu 16th Oct 2008 2:32am PDT by 
growthy
All questions » Business » Economics » growthy 
Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)
Current forecast: China (72% chance
2%)
2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is China with a probability of 72% (up 2% in last 1 day)
According to data released by the US Treasury Department, these were the top ten countries holding US debt as of June 2007, according to a report released on April 30, 2008.
#1. Japan $1,197, 000,000,000 That’s 1.197 TRILLION dollars
#2 China $922 ,000,000,000 That’s 922 BILLION dollars
#3 UK $921,000,000,000
#4 Cayman Island $740,000,000,000
#5 Luxembourg $703,000,000,000
#6 Canada $475,000,000,000
#7 Belgium $396,000,000,000
#8 Ireland $342,000,000,000
#9 Switzerland $329,000,000,000
#10 Netherlands $321,000,000,000
Oil Exporters came in #11, Russia at #17, and besides the Cayman Islands, there were also Bermuda at #13 ($238b) and the British Virgin Islands at #22($108b).
Source: Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2007
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm
United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands.
#1. Japan $1,197, 000,000,000 That’s 1.197 TRILLION dollars
#2 China $922 ,000,000,000 That’s 922 BILLION dollars
#3 UK $921,000,000,000
#4 Cayman Island $740,000,000,000
#5 Luxembourg $703,000,000,000
#6 Canada $475,000,000,000
#7 Belgium $396,000,000,000
#8 Ireland $342,000,000,000
#9 Switzerland $329,000,000,000
#10 Netherlands $321,000,000,000
Oil Exporters came in #11, Russia at #17, and besides the Cayman Islands, there were also Bermuda at #13 ($238b) and the British Virgin Islands at #22($108b).
Source: Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2007
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm
United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands.
Settlement details:
As reported by U.S. Treasury
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$34,149
Question suspends in 6 weeks
Suspend date: Mon 23rd Feb 4am PST (6 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Japan: 40%, China: 40%, United Kingdom: 10%, Oil Exporters: 4%, Caribbean Banking Centers: 4%, Russia: 2%
Action history:
Created Thu 16th Oct 2008 2:32am PDT by growthy
growthy
Changed Settlement info Mon 20th Oct 2008 3:44am PDT by 
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
bayoubear: show details ... reported by U.S. Treasury (<(<a href="<a href="http://www.treas. ... http://www.treas.gov/tic/</a>"><a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/<">http://www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;/a>)
Changed Description Mon 20th Oct 2008 3:44am PDT by bayoubear: show details
bayoubear: show details ... According to data released by the US Treasury Department, these were the top ten countries holding US debt as of June 2007, according to a report released on April 30, 2008. <br/> <br/> #1. Japan $1,197, 000,000,000 That’s 1.197 TRILLION dollars <br/> #2 China $922 ,000,000,000 That’s 922 BILLION dollars <br/> #3 UK $921,000,000,000 <br/> #4 Cayman Island $740,000,000,000 <br/> #5 Luxembourg $703,000,000,000 <br/> #6 Canada $475,000,000,000 <br/> #7 Belgium $396,000,000,000 <br/> #8 Ireland $342,000,000,000 <br/> #9 Switzerland $329,000,000,000 <br/> #10 Netherlands $321,000,000,000 <br/> <br/> Oil Exporters came in #11, Russia at #17, and besides the Cayman Islands, there were also Bermuda at #13 ($238b) and the British Virgin Islands at #22($108b). <br/> <br/> Source: Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2007 <br/> <br/> <a>http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm</a> <br/>
Changed Description Tue 21st Oct 2008 4:06am PDT by bayoubear: show details
bayoubear: show details ... press/releases/hp947.htm</a> <br/> <br/> United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man. <br/> <br/> Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. <br/> <br/> Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands.
Changed Settlement info Tue 21st Oct 2008 4:06am PDT by bayoubear: show details
bayoubear: show details ... reported by U.S. Treasury (<a href="<a href="<a href=" ... www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;/a>"><a href="<a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/<">http://www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;"><a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/<">http://www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;</a>;/a>)
Changed Settlement info Wed 22nd Oct 2008 3:37am PDT by bayoubear: show details
bayoubear: show details ... .treas.gov/tic/<</a>;/>;;/a>"><a href="<a ... .treas.gov/tic/<</a>;"><>;;"><a href="http://www.treas. ... .treas.gov/tic/<</a>;&>;;</a>;/a>)
Changed Settlement info Thu 23rd Oct 2008 3:11am PDT by bayoubear: show details
bayoubear: show details ... reported by U.S. Treasury (<a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/">http://www.treas.gov/tic/</a>"><a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/<">http://www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;;/a>"><a href="<a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/<">http://www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;;"><a href="http://www.treas.gov/tic/<">http://www.treas.gov/tic/<</a>;;</a>;/a>)
Suspend date: Mon 23rd Feb 4am PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (115)
115 predictions
aland
predicted China (H$250 at 70%)
athex
predicted Japan (H$20 at 32%)
pixelpaws
predicted China (H$100 at 68%)
bgrigore
predicted Japan (H$50 at 26%)
vixen
predicted China (H$100 at 70%)
rogerkni
predicted Japan (H$200 at 25%)
gotmick
predicted Japan (H$100 at 42%)
lrossouw
predicted China (H$5 at 50%)Comments (9)
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score: 10
CNBC 6 hours ago
China has bought more than $1 trillion of American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home, a move that could have painful effects for American borrowers. The declining
score: 10
International Herald Tribune 15 hours ago
HONG KONG: China has bought more than $1 trillion in American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home - a shift that could pose some challenges to the U.S
score: 10
New York Times 16 hours ago
HONG KONG - China has bought more than $1 trillion of American debt, but as the global downturn has intensified, Beijing is starting to keep more of its money at home, a move that could have painful effects for American borrowers. The declining
score: 10
Wall Street Journal Online 5 days ago
The bubble in Treasuries looks ready to pop, sending prices on government debt sharply lower. But just about every other corner of the bond market beckons. Stay Away from Treasury Bonds The bubble in Treasuries looks ready to pop, sending prices on
score: 10
Washington Post 5 days ago
done during the fiscal year that ended in September, when the Treasury added nearly $720 billion to the national debt. But the big borrowing binge will come during the current fiscal year, when the cost of the bailouts plus another stimulus package
Do you know what the Chinese are going to tell their kids in 2009? To eat their rice for "the poor starving people in America"...
All the highflying nations that were part of the Japanese carry trade complex are collapsing. The krona has now vanished as a currency. I would feel sorry for all those poor currency traders who were not pros who were taken to the cleaners! The only really successful currency traders are all very, very, VERY politically connected so they get plenty of warnings of troubles ahead.
"This annual survey was undertaken jointly by the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The next survey will be for end-June 2008, and preliminary data are expected to be released by February 27, 2009."
Perhaps the suspension date should be pushed back to mid to late February?
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