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Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Voided

Sadly this will need to be a void, because of incorrect data regarding the dates of the reports in question

This is from the last comments that were made:
From bgrigore
Since this are annual surveys, there will be no such data for March 2009, as the question asks.

And then from bayoubear
So are you saying the question itself is invalid...

And finally from bgrigore again
Unfortunately yes. This are annual surveys (called "Foreign Portofolio Holdings of US Securities"). There won't be data for March. Just for end-June.


My apologies for not voiding this earlier...

Background:

Background: According to data released by the US Treasury Department, these were the top ten countries holding US debt as of June 2007, according to a report released on April 30, 2008.

#1. Japan $1,197, 000,000,000 That’s 1.197 TRILLION dollars
#2 China $922 ,000,000,000 That’s 922 BILLION dollars
#3 UK $921,000,000,000
#4 Cayman Island $740,000,000,000
#5 Luxembourg $703,000,000,000
#6 Canada $475,000,000,000
#7 Belgium $396,000,000,000
#8 Ireland $342,000,000,000
#9 Switzerland $329,000,000,000
#10 Netherlands $321,000,000,000

Oil Exporters came in #11, Russia at #17, and besides the Cayman Islands, there were also Bermuda at #13 ($238b) and the British Virgin Islands at #22($108b).

Source: Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2007

http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm

United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.

Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands.

Settlement details:As reported by U.S. Treasury

 
Forecast history %
Japan
31%
China
29%
United Kingdom
8%
Oil Exporters
28%
Caribbean Banking Centers
3%
Russia
2%
Voided Sun 14th Jun 4:06am PST

Suspend date: Fri 29th May 4am PST

Initial likelihoods: Japan: 40%, China: 40%, United Kingdom: 10%, Oil Exporters: 4%, Caribbean Banking Centers: 4%, Russia: 2%

Action history:

Created Thu 16th Oct 2008 1:32am PST by growthy
Changed Suspend date Tue 21st Oct 2008 3:06am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-03-21 04:00:00"
Suspended Mon 23rd Feb 4am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 2nd Apr 6:12pm PST by curios: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/do-you-know-which-countri_b_181228.html
Changed Suspend date Sat 11th Apr 6:24am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-02-23 04:00:00"
Unsuspended Sat 11th Apr 6:24am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Data should not be available yet, so we'll open this one up again for play until the end of April...question is still based on statistics for the end of March, and will be suspended if the information becomes available sooner....
Suspended Thu 30th Apr 4am PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Mon 11th May 9:04am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2009-04-30 04:00:00"
Unsuspended Mon 11th May 9:04am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Extending the play time on this one...not sure when the data may be released to use for settlement...will run this until the end of May until info becomes available earlier....
Suspended Fri 29th May 4am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 4th Jun 3:14am PST by tuff_sledding[Power User]: It's June now. Can this be settled yet?
Voided Sun 14th Jun 4:06am PST by bayoubear[Admin]: Sadly this will need to be a void, because of incorrect data regarding the dates of the reports in question

This is from the last comments that were made:
From bgrigore
Since this are annual surveys, there will be no such data for March 2009, as the question asks.

And then from bayoubear
So are you saying the question itself is invalid...

And finally from bgrigore again
Unfortunately yes. This are annual surveys (called "Foreign Portofolio Holdings of US Securities"). There won't be data for March. Just for end-June.


My apologies for not voiding this earlier...

Suspend date: Fri 29th May 4am PST details

 

Predictions (195)

25 weeks ago
waynem predicted China (H$100 at 71%)
25 weeks ago
mdr0903 predicted China (H$200 at 70%)
26 weeks ago
zvassil predicted Japan (H$350 at 34%)
27 weeks ago
amatusik predicted China (H$50 at 71%)
27 weeks ago
jonmarlow predicted United Kingdom (H$20 at 0%)

Comments (19)

  1 gtown[Power User]
Which report will this be based on? From the press releases section it looks like the next report that will give country breakdowns will be on 02/27/2009 for June 2008. I couldn't find country data anywhere else.
posted 1 year ago
  3 gtown[Power User]
thanks!
posted 1 year ago
  4 curios
Good treasury watch on the market was seen A and voiced on our foreign correspondence programme two years ago that this was brought on by why was our interest rate so much higher than most other countries at that time we had a over heated economy of course since then we (Australia) have reduced ours and in all probability will reduce again at the November meeting of of our reserve bank and japan at that time where working at a nil interest rate
posted 1 year ago
  5 randburg
Remember when your Mommy told you to eat your peas for "the poor starving people in China"?

Do you know what the Chinese are going to tell their kids in 2009? To eat their rice for "the poor starving people in America"...
posted 1 year ago
  6 growthy
Historically, the Chinese peasants have been renown for hard, grinding work. Efficient and willing to put up with a great deal of harshness, the superb workforce inherent within the ancient ethos of Chinese farming was finally, after 200 years of destruction of Chinese industry and commerce, it was reborn in all its majesty.
posted 1 year ago
  7 growthy
@curios - "all probability will reduce again at the November meeting of of our reserve bank and japan at that time where working at a nil interest rate"

All the highflying nations that were part of the Japanese carry trade complex are collapsing. The krona has now vanished as a currency. I would feel sorry for all those poor currency traders who were not pros who were taken to the cleaners! The only really successful currency traders are all very, very, VERY politically connected so they get plenty of warnings of troubles ahead.
posted 1 year ago
  8 bayoubear[Admin]
The report referred to in the background also contained this statement:
"This annual survey was undertaken jointly by the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The next survey will be for end-June 2008, and preliminary data are expected to be released by February 27, 2009."

Perhaps the suspension date should be pushed back to mid to late February?
posted 1 year ago
  9 atrane
@randburg - my Chinese politics professor at the Univ of Minnesota said in all seriousness that Chinese parents were telling there kids that about Americans during the Mao years because of the way America was protrayed within China. Which seems very sad since so many Chinese died during Mao's famines created out of bad agriculture policies and exporting needed rice.
posted 1 year ago
  10 curios
China fears for its huge stake in US
Premier Wen Jiabao ... "... a little bit worried ". Photo: AP

March 13, 2009
China is concerned about its investments in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said today, as he called on US economic planners to safeguard the assets.

"We have lent huge amounts of money to the United States. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," Wen told reporters.

"To be honest, I am a little bit worried and I would like to ... call on the United States to honour its word and remain a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets."

As the largest creditor to the United States, China is "extremely interested in developments in the US economy," he said.

"On the foreign reserves issue, the first consideration is our national interest," he said. "But we also have to consider the stability of the overall international financial system, as the two factors are interlinked."

With the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, standing at $US1.95 trillion ($2.98 trillion) at the end of December, China is facing the challenge of finding safe ways of placing its money, forcing it to buy large amounts of US government debt.

China held $US727.4 billion ($1.1 trillion) in US Treasury bonds at the end of last year, ahead of Japan, the holder of $US626 billion ($956.46 billion) in bonds, according to US government data.

http://business.watoday.com.au/business/china-fears-for-its-huge-stake-in-us-20090313-8xjo.html
posted 35 weeks ago
  11 curios
i think here is another that feel thro the crack
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/do-you-know-which-countri_b_181228.html
posted 33 weeks ago
  12 bgrigore
This question is not about monthly data reported by the Treasury Department but its more complex data aggregated from an joint annual survey carried by Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (data as of June 2007 last year, this year from June 2008). I think there are strong chances the answer to this will be Japan. The preliminary data is here http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/shlprelim.html.
You can find last year report here http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/ticpress.shtml. Look at point 2 Annual surveys and not monthly data. Last year report is here http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm.
posted 29 weeks ago
  13 bgrigore
Also look at bayoubear's comment no 8 to see to what report this question is about.
posted 29 weeks ago
  14 bgrigore
"Next Release is expected on 04/30/2009 at 4 p.m. in Washington D.C.: Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2008."
posted 29 weeks ago
  15 bgrigore
The report was just released.
Here is the press release. http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg116.htm
Here you can find the report. http://www.treas.gov/tic/fpis.html
Which is this. http://www.treas.gov/tic/shla2008r.pdf
I hope it is obvious for everyone that it is the same data as in the background of this question, which is different from the data released every month.
posted 29 weeks ago
  16 bgrigore
I initially predicted China on this question and in the last months of 2008 China took the lead from Japan in the monthly reporting of the US Treasury as holder of most US debt.
Then in the first days of 2009 I looked closely at the description of the question and it was not about monthly reporting (as I wrongly assumed at first look) but about different data - a yearly survey released at the end of April each year - a picture back from June previous probably because since more institutions are involved in reporting this and the data is more complex from those released by the Treasury alone, June is the time that appropriate data could be gathered from all institutions. So I then cashed in my bets on China (about 10k) losing 2k.
But the question is not clear and there were no clarifications made as to which report it refers also it is clear that all the references is from - and the link in the background is to - last year "Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2007" and the data to which refers are different and more complex then the data released by Treasury alone in monthly reporting. So I think the correct choice is unfortunately for this to be voided.
posted 28 weeks ago
  17 bgrigore
This year report was released on April 30th, 2009 (data for end June 2008). See at comment 15.
Next year report will be probably on April 30th 2010 (data for end June 2009) with preliminary data released on February 26th 2010. Complementary data with the situation at year-end 2008 is currently processed with a preliminary report by August 31th, 2009. See here http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg116.htm.
Since this are annual surveys, there will be no such data for March 2009, as the question asks.
posted 27 weeks ago
  18 bayoubear[Admin]
So are you saying the question itself is invalid...
posted 27 weeks ago
  19 bgrigore
Unfortunately yes. This are annual surveys (called "Foreign Portofolio Holdings of US Securities"). There won't be data for March. Just for end-June.

PS The complementary report that I refered to at comment 17 is "US Portofolio Holdings of Foreign Securities", which is totally something else.
posted 27 weeks ago

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