
Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)
Sadly this will need to be a void, because of incorrect data regarding the dates of the reports in question
This is from the last comments that were made:
From bgrigore
Since this are annual surveys, there will be no such data for March 2009, as the question asks.
And then from bayoubear
So are you saying the question itself is invalid...
And finally from bgrigore again
Unfortunately yes. This are annual surveys (called "Foreign Portofolio Holdings of US Securities"). There won't be data for March. Just for end-June.
My apologies for not voiding this earlier...
Background:>
#1. Japan $1,197, 000,000,000 That’s 1.197 TRILLION dollars
#2 China $922 ,000,000,000 That’s 922 BILLION dollars
#3 UK $921,000,000,000
#4 Cayman Island $740,000,000,000
#5 Luxembourg $703,000,000,000
#6 Canada $475,000,000,000
#7 Belgium $396,000,000,000
#8 Ireland $342,000,000,000
#9 Switzerland $329,000,000,000
#10 Netherlands $321,000,000,000
Oil Exporters came in #11, Russia at #17, and besides the Cayman Islands, there were also Bermuda at #13 ($238b) and the British Virgin Islands at #22($108b).
Source: Table 2. Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2007
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm
United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man.
Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria.
Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands.
Settlement details:As reported by U.S. Treasury
| Japan |
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| China |
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| United Kingdom |
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| Oil Exporters |
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| Caribbean Banking Centers |
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| Russia |
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- Activity: H$108,361 |
- Predictions: 195 |
Comments: 19
Suspend date: Fri 29th May 4am PST
Initial likelihoods: Japan: 40%, China: 40%, United Kingdom: 10%, Oil Exporters: 4%, Caribbean Banking Centers: 4%, Russia: 2%
Action history:
This is from the last comments that were made:
From bgrigore
Since this are annual surveys, there will be no such data for March 2009, as the question asks.
And then from bayoubear
So are you saying the question itself is invalid...
And finally from bgrigore again
Unfortunately yes. This are annual surveys (called "Foreign Portofolio Holdings of US Securities"). There won't be data for March. Just for end-June.
My apologies for not voiding this earlier...
Suspend date: Fri 29th May 4am PST details
Predictions (195)
Comments (19)
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Do you know what the Chinese are going to tell their kids in 2009? To eat their rice for "the poor starving people in America"...
All the highflying nations that were part of the Japanese carry trade complex are collapsing. The krona has now vanished as a currency. I would feel sorry for all those poor currency traders who were not pros who were taken to the cleaners! The only really successful currency traders are all very, very, VERY politically connected so they get plenty of warnings of troubles ahead.
"This annual survey was undertaken jointly by the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The next survey will be for end-June 2008, and preliminary data are expected to be released by February 27, 2009."
Perhaps the suspension date should be pushed back to mid to late February?
Premier Wen Jiabao ... "... a little bit worried ". Photo: AP
March 13, 2009
China is concerned about its investments in the United States, Premier Wen Jiabao said today, as he called on US economic planners to safeguard the assets.
"We have lent huge amounts of money to the United States. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets," Wen told reporters.
"To be honest, I am a little bit worried and I would like to ... call on the United States to honour its word and remain a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets."
As the largest creditor to the United States, China is "extremely interested in developments in the US economy," he said.
"On the foreign reserves issue, the first consideration is our national interest," he said. "But we also have to consider the stability of the overall international financial system, as the two factors are interlinked."
With the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, standing at $US1.95 trillion ($2.98 trillion) at the end of December, China is facing the challenge of finding safe ways of placing its money, forcing it to buy large amounts of US government debt.
China held $US727.4 billion ($1.1 trillion) in US Treasury bonds at the end of last year, ahead of Japan, the holder of $US626 billion ($956.46 billion) in bonds, according to US government data.
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/china-fears-for-its-huge-stake-in-us-20090313-8xjo.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-nickolas/do-you-know-which-countri_b_181228.html
You can find last year report here http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/ticpress.shtml. Look at point 2 Annual surveys and not monthly data. Last year report is here http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp947.htm.
Here is the press release. http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg116.htm
Here you can find the report. http://www.treas.gov/tic/fpis.html
Which is this. http://www.treas.gov/tic/shla2008r.pdf
I hope it is obvious for everyone that it is the same data as in the background of this question, which is different from the data released every month.
Then in the first days of 2009 I looked closely at the description of the question and it was not about monthly reporting (as I wrongly assumed at first look) but about different data - a yearly survey released at the end of April each year - a picture back from June previous probably because since more institutions are involved in reporting this and the data is more complex from those released by the Treasury alone, June is the time that appropriate data could be gathered from all institutions. So I then cashed in my bets on China (about 10k) losing 2k.
But the question is not clear and there were no clarifications made as to which report it refers also it is clear that all the references is from - and the link in the background is to - last year "Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities at End-June 2007" and the data to which refers are different and more complex then the data released by Treasury alone in monthly reporting. So I think the correct choice is unfortunately for this to be voided.
Next year report will be probably on April 30th 2010 (data for end June 2009) with preliminary data released on February 26th 2010. Complementary data with the situation at year-end 2008 is currently processed with a preliminary report by August 31th, 2009. See here http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/tg116.htm.
Since this are annual surveys, there will be no such data for March 2009, as the question asks.
PS The complementary report that I refered to at comment 17 is "US Portofolio Holdings of Foreign Securities", which is totally something else.
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