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Created Thu 16th Oct 2008 9:53am PDT by growthy
All questions » Business » Economics » 

Where will the NY Spot Gold close on Friday, October 17, 2008?

Settled as GOLD/USD will close between 770.10 and 785.00

Last bid price for New York Spot Gold was $782.90, down $21.40

Background:

Where will the GOLD/USD close on Friday, October 17, 2008?

Gold briefly dropped under $800 before settling at 804.50 (December gold) on Thursday.

Question will suspend in accordance with rules regarding live-play questions at 8:00 AM EDT.


Live chart: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source (Reuters).

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

GOLD/USD will close at or below 740.00
0%
GOLD/USD will close between 740.10 and 755.00
3%
GOLD/USD will close between 755.10 and 770.00
4%
GOLD/USD will close between 770.10 and 785.00
16%
GOLD/USD will close between 785.10 and 800.00
30%
GOLD/USD will close between 800.10 and 815.00
23%
GOLD/USD will close between 815.10 and 830.00
9%
GOLD/USD will close between 830.10 and 845.00
8%
GOLD/USD will close between 845.10 and 860.00
4%
GOLD/USD will close at over 860.00
3%
Activity: H$7,732
Settled as GOLD/USD will close between 770.10 and 785.00 on Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:02am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 17th Oct 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:02am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 17th Oct 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: GOLD/USD will close at or below 740.00: 2%, GOLD/USD will close between 740.10 and 755.00: 5%, GOLD/USD will close between 755.10 and 770.00: 8%, GOLD/USD will close between 770.10 and 785.00: 10%, GOLD/USD will close between 785.10 and 800.00: 25%, GOLD/USD will close between 800.10 and 815.00: 25%, GOLD/USD will close between 815.10 and 830.00: 10%, GOLD/USD will close between 830.10 and 845.00: 8%, GOLD/USD will close between 845.10 and 860.00: 5%, GOLD/USD will close at over 860.00: 2%

Action history:

Created Thu 16th Oct 2008 9:53am PDT by growthy
Suspended Fri 17th Oct 2008 2:30am PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Fri 17th Oct 2008 2:45am PDT by robuk[Admin]: was: "2008-10-17 01:30:00"
Unsuspended Fri 17th Oct 2008 2:45am PDT by robuk[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Fri 17th Oct 2008 3:35am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2008-10-17 12:30:00"
Changed Description Fri 17th Oct 2008 3:40am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... on Friday, October 17, 2008? <?<br/> <br/> Gold briefly dropped under $800 before settling at 804.50<br/> <b>Question will suspend in accordance with rules regarding live-play questions at 9:30 AM EDT. </b><br/> <br/> <br/> Live chart: <a
Changed Description Fri 17th Oct 2008 3:44am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... on Friday, October 17, 2008?<? <br/> <br/> Gold briefly dropped ... before settling at 804.50< (December gold) on Thursday. <br/> <br/> <b>Question will suspend ... 9:30 AM EDT. </b><> <br/> <br/> <br/> Live chart: <
Suspended Fri 17th Oct 2008 3:45am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Adjusting suspension time to better comply with Live-Play concerns.
Unsuspended Fri 17th Oct 2008 3:52am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Suspension time reset and comment regarding question posted.
Changed Description Fri 17th Oct 2008 4:03am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: show details
... regarding live-play questions at 98:3000 AM EDT. </b> <br/> <br
Changed Suspend date Fri 17th Oct 2008 4:03am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: was: "2008-10-17 05:30:00"
Suspended Fri 17th Oct 2008 5am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 17th Oct 2008 2:47pm PDT by growthy: NY Spot Gold closed @ 782.90
http://www.kitco.com/market/
Settled as 'GOLD/USD will close between 770.10 and 785.00' Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:02am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Last bid price for New York Spot Gold was $782.90, down $21.40

Suspend date: Fri 17th Oct 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:02am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 17th Oct 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (50)

50 predictions

11 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted GOLD/USD will close at over 860.00 (H$100 at 3%)
11 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted GOLD/USD will close between 845.10 and 860.00 (H$100 at 4%)
11 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted GOLD/USD will close between 830.10 and 845.00 (H$100 at 8%)
11 weeks ago
bgrigore predicted GOLD/USD will close between 815.10 and 830.00 (H$100 at 10%)
11 weeks ago
growthy predicted GOLD/USD will close between 815.10 and 830.00 (H$100 at 8%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
Suspension time on this question has been adjusted to allow the market to be suspended during most of the trading day. Question will suspend at 9:30 AM EDT.

Questions such as this should be created several days in advance to allow more play by wagerers and should also be suspended several hours, if not a full day, prior to the settlement time. Creating a question such as this on Monday for example, and having it suspend on Thursday, with settlement based on Friday's outcome would be an excellent way in which to have this topic available for wagers.

Questions with a very short time of play do not allow for liquidity within the market, exposure to the greatest number of players, and time to research and decide on the best course of action for wagering. Question creators should take this into consideration when devising new markets for play.
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Suspension time has been readjusted to 8:00 AM EDT as that is when the New York gold market begins trading.

To repeat....questions such as this must suspend prior to the opening of any exchange or market.
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 growthy
John, I do not agree with you :(

http://www.hubdub.com/m19348/DJIA__What_will_be_the_dollar_point_difference_between_open_and_close_October_17_2008
Question suspends in 8 hours

http://www.hubdub.com/m19365/Where_will_the_DJIA_close_on_Friday_October_17_2008
Question suspends in 7 hours
posted 11 weeks ago
  4 growthy
NY Spot Gold market will close in 10 hrs. 3 mins.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 growthy
" questions such as this must suspend prior to the opening of any exchange or market."

http://www.hubdub.com/m19348/DJIA__What_will_be_the_dollar_point_difference_between_open_and_close_October_17_2008

http://www.hubdub.com/m19365/Where_will_the_DJIA_close_on_Friday_October_17_2008

Please SUSPEND them as well.
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 jenniandboys[Admin]
@growthy - We're in the middle of a rule change. In-play markets tend to be controversial around here because about half the users love them and the other half think they're unfair. We've tried to strike a balance by providing a small, diverse set of in-play questions. Thus, only a handful of questions are allowed to run in-play (i.e. betting while the market is open) and all others must suspend prior to the opening bell. Here's a post of the new rules: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Topic/Changes_to_inplay_market_rules_110

This would be a great market to run weekly... maybe you could post next week's this afternoon and then we can play on it all week! Thanks for a great market.
posted 11 weeks ago
  7 growthy
John,

I understand you prefer longer contracts.

But ,,, if you do not allow questions like this until its trading hours,,,, how do you expect new visitors to join Hubdub? Live-play is attracting more than static predictions. Everyone agree this including Robin Hanson.

Do not worry about the liquidity! Give it a chance! Please let the market decide !
posted 11 weeks ago
  8 growthy
@jenniandboys - Thanks for the link. I'll create longer contracts (questions). Just let the market decide its liquidity. I'm sure Hubdub will need more traders-investors (forecaster, predictor) to become highly liquid. In play financial markets (especially PM's) are great for achieving this goal.
posted 11 weeks ago
  9 growthy
Every in-play market must be supported by market makers (providing liquidity, adjusting prices). One thing is sure: In-play markets will give new predictors to Hubdub!
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 bayoubear[Admin]
In Play markets have the positive points, that's for sure. Markets like this one, where there are several different options availble might be just right for 'in play' conditions, provided they suspend early enough in the day to avoid having people just jump on an already determined outcome. The "Where will the DJIA close' question for example suspends 1 hour before closing...the outcome is usually far from certain, but you should be able to make a reasoned prediction.

Hubdub is still an evolving concept and adjustments are being made all along the way to try to produce a top quality prediction market site. Ideas are being listened to and changes may occur. Meanwhile, thanks for the questions being proposed...
posted 11 weeks ago
  11 growthy
@ bayoubear - "to avoid having people just jump on an already determined outcome"

Tight spreads (according to daily volatility) and 2 hours proxy will be enough. In addition to this, I'll monitor my prediction markets (questions) and modify the quotes according to realtime volatility and pricing. This is what the real market makers (MM's) do to make fair markets. Just give my in-play gold prediction market a chance.
posted 11 weeks ago

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