
Will the FTSE open up on Oct 20th?
FTSE opened at 4095.17, up about 32 points
Background:>
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
Suspend date: Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 20th Oct 2008 6:22am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
Open 4,095.17
Prev Close 4,063.01
Opened up 22.16
http://uk.reuters.com/business/markets/index?symbol=gb!ftse
Suspend date: Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 20th Oct 2008 6:22am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (18)
18 predictions
Comments (5)
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more players involved in order to stay viable. This
question today only had 18 positions taken by 13
players. 3 players alone accounted for about 37,000
of the 41,000 wagered.
Business questions need to draw more interest and have
more liquidity than shown here. Market percentages
wound up with 91% correct.
I made some of the big bets here and I don't think that this is something bad or shameful. FTSE open question is one of the more riskiest (especially Monday's open), you take some greater risk, you can lose big (and I losed many times), but if you're right, the risk pays out. This also should be normal for the conditions of Hubdub.
It would be very pity if those questions (about FTSE, DAX and BSE Sensex) will be lost again after their such a long awaited revival. Time in which many users accustomed to them has left the site or has forgoten about them, and the new ones simply doesn't yet know them. It takes time for the popularity to grow.
I do want these markets to succeed and I'm just trying to say that those players who are creating and playing them need to help in increasing their popularity. More background information and links might help encourage players who are unfamiliar with these overseas markets to get involved. Also seeking our newer players from non-American areas might also be useful in getting them to consider these questions.
One other concern is the high level of certainty of some of these markets. Questions that regularly settle at high percentages aren't attractive to those player who can't get in before the percentage reach 90% or higher. Adjusting suspension times might be a way of keeping the percentages more level, or adjusting them daily. We are looking at some options for adjusting wagering that might be useful in markets such as these.
Most importantly, I do want these markets to succeed.
I agree that more background may be helpful. I'll try to do this on the questions which I'll create.
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