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Will the FTSE open up on Oct 20th?

Settled as Yes

FTSE opened at 4095.17, up about 32 points

Background:

Question suspends at the opening of the London Stock Exchange at 8 AM BST (3 AM EDT)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
91%
No
9%
Activity: H$41,275
Settled as Yes on Mon 20th Oct 2008 6:22am PDT

Suspend date: Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 20th Oct 2008 6:22am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Thu 16th Oct 2008 12:59pm PDT by akkie
Suspended Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 20th Oct 2008 12:13am PDT by orlin: Yes

Open 4,095.17
Prev Close 4,063.01
Opened up 22.16

http://uk.reuters.com/business/markets/index?symbol=gb!ftse
Settled as 'Yes' Mon 20th Oct 2008 6:22am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: FTSE opened at 4095.17, up about 32 points

Suspend date: Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Mon 20th Oct 2008 6:22am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 19th Oct 2008 11:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (18)

18 predictions

11 weeks ago
cartographer predicted Yes (H$50 at 48%)
11 weeks ago
ksavai predicted Yes (H$20 at 48%)
11 weeks ago
normal_service predicted Yes (H$100 at 47%)
11 weeks ago
ghosttie predicted Yes (H$20 at 47%)
11 weeks ago
youbet predicted Yes (H$100 at 47%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 bayoubear[Admin]
Our international markets really need to get a lot
more players involved in order to stay viable. This
question today only had 18 positions taken by 13
players. 3 players alone accounted for about 37,000
of the 41,000 wagered.
Business questions need to draw more interest and have
more liquidity than shown here. Market percentages
wound up with 91% correct.
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 curios
if that's the case you know who they are i only had one. it is news and its a true guess as i have said before the answer is so easy you reduce the amount of bets and only allow allow say i each hr and or freeze the bets with respect i say you should encourage and those above remarks wont help in fact they are slightly threatening
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 orlin
Well, speaking about popularity, most of the american sports questions never reach a popularity of 13 predictors. I don't think that they must not be allowed by this reason and I think the same is here. Some days the FTSE open question has reached greater popularity than today's, may be such fluctuations are normal.
I made some of the big bets here and I don't think that this is something bad or shameful. FTSE open question is one of the more riskiest (especially Monday's open), you take some greater risk, you can lose big (and I losed many times), but if you're right, the risk pays out. This also should be normal for the conditions of Hubdub.
It would be very pity if those questions (about FTSE, DAX and BSE Sensex) will be lost again after their such a long awaited revival. Time in which many users accustomed to them has left the site or has forgoten about them, and the new ones simply doesn't yet know them. It takes time for the popularity to grow.
posted 11 weeks ago
  4 bayoubear[Admin]
I just wrote a bit referring to your comments Orlin, but kept the page open too long and lost it...to go back at it briefly, I am most supportive of these international markets but at the same time I am concerned about the number of players. As Elly said herself a couple of weeks ago, she wasn't into creating a market for just a few players.
I do want these markets to succeed and I'm just trying to say that those players who are creating and playing them need to help in increasing their popularity. More background information and links might help encourage players who are unfamiliar with these overseas markets to get involved. Also seeking our newer players from non-American areas might also be useful in getting them to consider these questions.

One other concern is the high level of certainty of some of these markets. Questions that regularly settle at high percentages aren't attractive to those player who can't get in before the percentage reach 90% or higher. Adjusting suspension times might be a way of keeping the percentages more level, or adjusting them daily. We are looking at some options for adjusting wagering that might be useful in markets such as these.

Most importantly, I do want these markets to succeed.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 orlin
Thanks for the reply, Bayoubear. I also suffer often from the same 'open too long' and it's very disappointing.
I agree that more background may be helpful. I'll try to do this on the questions which I'll create.
posted 11 weeks ago

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