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When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

Settled as December or later

Regardless of whether we count being ousted as resigning or not, this question should have suspended at the end of November. "December or later" is the correct option as of midnight Dec 1 in Thailand because he did not resign in any of the other option months.

Background:

Thailand really doesn't like their Prime Ministers. First one leaves the country so he can't be "detained," the second is kicked out of office because he's on a cooking show and now protesters are eying the third.

In the first two situations the to be deposed PM repeatedly said he would not leave and bow into pressure but subsequently left or was forced out. Now once again the third PM in the last year and a half is saying he won't bow into public pressure and leave.

I'm detecting a pattern here.....

The most recent political protests to oust the third PM have left many injured and are mainly caused by the fact that the third PM is related by marriage to the first deposed PM. The entire situation is playing out like an episode of General Hospital instead of a diplomatic political process. Now even the military has been brought in, and oddly enough the top army general is voicing support for the protesters as had been the case with the first two deposed PM's.

If I was a 'betting man' I'd say the next thing to happen is the fourth PM is related to the second PM by way of the third PM's mistress.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

October
1%
November
3%
December or later
96%
Activity: H$20,163
Settled as December or later on Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:02am PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:02am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Nov 2008 8:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: October: 25%, November: 50%, December or later: 25%

Action history:

Created Fri 17th Oct 2008 4:59am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Tue 2nd Dec 2008 12:09am PST by pitchedoutsideleg: Just made it into December!

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/court-bans-thai-pm-from-politics/2008/12/02/1227980006444.html
Suspended Tue 2nd Dec 2008 1:15am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: settlement pending
Settled as 'December or later' Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:02am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: Regardless of whether we count being ousted as resigning or not, this question should have suspended at the end of November. "December or later" is the correct option as of midnight Dec 1 in Thailand because he did not resign in any of the other option months.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 2nd Dec 2008 3:02am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 30th Nov 2008 8:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (36)

36 predictions

5 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted December or later (H$1,000 at 94%)
6 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted December or later (H$1,254 at 83%)
6 weeks ago
hect0r predicted December or later (H$200 at 73%)
6 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted November (H$890 at 18%)
6 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted November (H$200 at 9%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 cognos[Power User]
<<<If I was a 'betting man' I'd say the next thing to happen is the fourth PM is related to the second PM by way of the third PM's mistress.
>>>
Or more likely, the "top army general".
posted 11 weeks ago

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