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ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Settled as 177 - 195

Obama by 191 electoral votes

Background:

When the 2008 Presidential election is over, what will be the difference in the Electoral Votes won. For example candidate "A" wins 344 EV's and candidate "B" wins 164 EV's, the winning margin would be 180.
{ 344 - 164 = 180} So will this be a close contest or a blowout?

When you vote Nov. 4 you'll be selecting electors from the presidential candidate's political party who, in turn, will meet Dec. 15 in Lansing and other state capitals to convene the Electoral College.

Those are the people who will vote for president. The electors usually meet in each state's capital. The outcome is normally a cinch since electors represent the candidate with the most votes cast in the state. The results will be formally announced in the U.S. Senate on Jan. 6.
Enrollment

There are 538 electors from 50 states and Washington, D.C. Each state gets an elector for each U.S. House district plus one for each senator.

Michigan has 15 districts plus two senators -- 17 electors, or 17 electoral votes.

The number of electors needed to win: 270.
That college try

Writers of the Constitution figured this plan would give equal weight to each state. It doesn't, of course. California, the most populous state, has 55 electoral votes. Nearby Wyoming, the least populous state, has 3.

Faith-based decision: Constitution framers also lacked faith in the U.S. electorate, fearing it might tap a loose cannon -- or a populous state would tap a favorite son. A more sedate group of electors would make the correct choice, they reasoned. But now numerous states require that electors be bound to vote for the candidate they represent anyway.

Back by unpopular demand: More than 700 proposals to change or ditch the Electoral College have been made in Congress in the past 200 years. And there have been more proposals to amend the Constitution regarding the Electoral College than any other topic.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

45 Electoral Votes or Less
7%
46 - 70
6%
71 - 95
7%
96 - 119
8%
120 - 144
11%
145 - 162
16%
163 - 176
12%
177 - 195
14%
196 - 209
14%
210 Electoral Votes or More
5%
Activity: H$140,581
Settled as 177 - 195 on Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 45 Electoral Votes or Less: 4%, 46 - 70: 6%, 71 - 95: 7%, 96 - 119: 10%, 120 - 144: 11%, 145 - 162: 12%, 163 - 176: 13%, 177 - 195: 14%, 196 - 209: 13%, 210 Electoral Votes or More: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 17th Oct 2008 10:24am PDT by buckeyetom
Changed Description Mon 20th Oct 2008 1:52am PDT by destry[Admin]: show details
... winning margin would be 180. <.<br/> { 344 - 164 = 180} So ... close contest or a blowout??<br/> <br/> When you vote Nov. 4 you'll be selecting electors from the presidential candidate's political party who, in turn, will meet Dec. 15 in Lansing and other state capitals to convene the Electoral College.<br/> <br/> Those are the people who will vote for president. The electors usually meet in each state's capital. The outcome is normally a cinch since electors represent the candidate with the most votes cast in the state. The results will be formally announced in the U.S. Senate on Jan. 6.<br/> Enrollment<br/> <br/> There are 538 electors from 50 states and Washington, D.C. Each state gets an elector for each U.S. House district plus one for each senator.<br/> <br/> Michigan has 15 districts plus two senators -- 17 electors, or 17 electoral votes.<br/> <br/> The number of electors needed to win: 270.<br/> That college try<br/> <br/> Writers of the Constitution figured this plan would give equal weight to each state. It doesn't, of course. California, the most populous state, has 55 electoral votes. Nearby Wyoming, the least populous state, has 3.<br/> <br/> Faith-based decision: Constitution framers also lacked faith in the U.S. electorate, fearing it might tap a loose cannon -- or a populous state would tap a favorite son. A more sedate group of electors would make the correct choice, they reasoned. But now numerous states require that electors be bound to vote for the candidate they represent anyway.<br/> <br/> Back by unpopular demand: More than 700 proposals to change or ditch the Electoral College have been made in Congress in the past 200 years. And there have been more proposals to amend the Constitution regarding the Electoral College than any other topic.
Changed Suspend date Sat 1st Nov 2008 10:40am PDT by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 19:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:05pm PST by coolkraft: Obama by 191 electoral votes
Settled as '177 - 195' Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PST by destry[Admin]: Obama by 191 electoral votes

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (1184)

1184 predictions

9 weeks ago
hubdubbob predicted 177 - 195 (H$100 at 13%)
9 weeks ago
hubdubbob predicted 196 - 209 (H$100 at 13%)
9 weeks ago
stactimes predicted 145 - 162 (H$100 at 16%)
9 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted 196 - 209 (H$100 at 12%)
9 weeks ago
stactimes predicted 145 - 162 (H$100 at 15%)
more

Comments (12)

  1 arielg81
http://www.pollster.com/
posted 11 weeks ago
It's funny, but from the betting patterns it appears no one has a clue where this thing is headed.
posted 10 weeks ago
Sarkozy views Obama stance on Iran as 'utterly immature'
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1031943.html
posted 10 weeks ago
  5 chatarra
BuckeyeTom: As difficult as this is for me - I agree with you. lol
The wagering pattern looks like a train wreck.
posted 10 weeks ago
@chatarra
"Train Wreck." By the looks of the graph above it's a fitting title for a Picasso painting.
posted 9 weeks ago
  7 deelilley
Pollock describes it best.
posted 9 weeks ago
  9 duckie
this is a damn fine question.
posted 9 weeks ago
  10 buckeyetom
Thanks Duckie. The betting patterns are absolutely amazing.
posted 9 weeks ago
  11 onedave[Power User]
Just so everyone knows there are 538 electoral votes available. It seems like the current count is 364-173 with one vote still undecided in Nebraska.
posted 8 weeks ago
SORRY BOUT THE FLAG! I sent it by accident before I caught the Missouri count.

I should be flogged.
posted 8 weeks ago

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