ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 45 Electoral Votes or Less: 4%, 46 - 70: 6%, 71 - 95: 7%, 96 - 119: 10%, 120 - 144: 11%, 145 - 162: 12%, 163 - 176: 13%, 177 - 195: 14%, 196 - 209: 13%, 210 Electoral Votes or More: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 17th Oct 2008 9:24am PST by buckeyetom

Changed Description Mon 20th Oct 2008 12:52am PST by destry: show details

... winning margin would be 180. <.<br/> { 344 - 164 = 180} So ... close contest or a blowout??<br/> <br/> When you vote Nov. 4 you'll be selecting electors from the presidential candidate's political party who, in turn, will meet Dec. 15 in Lansing and other state capitals to convene the Electoral College.<br/> <br/> Those are the people who will vote for president. The electors usually meet in each state's capital. The outcome is normally a cinch since electors represent the candidate with the most votes cast in the state. The results will be formally announced in the U.S. Senate on Jan. 6.<br/> Enrollment<br/> <br/> There are 538 electors from 50 states and Washington, D.C. Each state gets an elector for each U.S. House district plus one for each senator.<br/> <br/> Michigan has 15 districts plus two senators -- 17 electors, or 17 electoral votes.<br/> <br/> The number of electors needed to win: 270.<br/> That college try<br/> <br/> Writers of the Constitution figured this plan would give equal weight to each state. It doesn't, of course. California, the most populous state, has 55 electoral votes. Nearby Wyoming, the least populous state, has 3.<br/> <br/> Faith-based decision: Constitution framers also lacked faith in the U.S. electorate, fearing it might tap a loose cannon -- or a populous state would tap a favorite son. A more sedate group of electors would make the correct choice, they reasoned. But now numerous states require that electors be bound to vote for the candidate they represent anyway.<br/> <br/> Back by unpopular demand: More than 700 proposals to change or ditch the Electoral College have been made in Congress in the past 200 years. And there have been more proposals to amend the Constitution regarding the Electoral College than any other topic.

Changed Description Sat 1st Nov 2008 9:40am PST by destry: show details

... winning margin would be 180.<. <br/> { 344 - 164 = 180} So ... close contest or a blowout?<? <br/> <br/> When you vote ... to convene the Electoral College.<. <br/> <br/> Those are the ... .S. Senate on Jan. 6.<. <br/> Enrollment< <br/> <br/> There are 538 ... plus one for each senator.<. <br/> <br/> Michigan has 15 ... electors, or 17 electoral votes.<. <br/> <br/> The number of electors needed to win: 270.<. <br/> That college try< <br/> <br/> Writers of the ... least populous state, has 3.<. <br/> <br/> Faith-based decision: ... the candidate they represent anyway.<. <br/> <br/> Back by unpopular

Changed Suspend date Sat 1st Nov 2008 9:40am PST by destry: was: "2008-11-03 19:59:00"

Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 6th Nov 2008 1:05pm PST by coolkraft: Obama by 191 electoral votes

Settled as '177 - 195' Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PST by destry: Obama by 191 electoral votes

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Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 6th Nov 2008 2:07pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 4pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details