Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average open higher on October 20?

I'm not agreed on this percentages. The reason is obviously clear - there is no news about any expectations for oppening. Especially for tomorrow, when the market is expected to be very mixed.

I agree with elly. Trend is volatile, but, not up nor down, specifically. And while 35% is within the 15% "tolerance" threshold, in the case of this 'short-term' market, I feel it should be started at 50%.

Please let me know your thoughts. I'm leaning toward suspending this market for further review unless their are different viewpoints.

just cashed mine in i was surprised it was se at 30

A couple of points here...
I'd like to hear the creator's reasoning for the 30% figure chosen to start the question. If there are valid reasons for that, they should be in the background to provide more info for the players.

I think that having the starting odds vary between 40-60% might be very reasonable for this question if the question was created daily and odds were set in accordance to news and expectations. If the market has a strong movement in one direction on one day, then usually the expectation might be for a reversal the next day. 50/50 might not be accurate, perhaps 45/55 or 40/60 would be better in some of these cases.

I do like having this question closing well before the opening bell, because quite often information regarding futures movement and the condition of European and Asian markets provide strong indications of how the Dow will open. After all of that information is known, it becomes less of a predictive question and more of a reactive question, particularly as we get very close to the opening of the exchange.

For the time being, I'm in favor of letting this question stay alive, but I may be taking a second look at the one posed for Tuesday, which started with the same percentage.

On Oct 10th payout was done done for those who were holding bonds, and the payout amount was $138bn. On Oct 21st payout for naked CDS will be done which is expected to be 5-6 times more than spot CDS, hence it might be $400-600bn who knows? Since Lehman is bankrupt hence those guys who insured these naked bonds need to pay such a hugh amount. We expect 2-3 big banks who insured these naked CDS to go bankrupt on Oct 21st, Watch Out!!!

Who will get impacted most or might go belly up?

Derivatives specialists insist it is impossible to predict which investors will be hit hardest by the losses on Lehman CDSs, which are spread far and wide, as Lehman was one of the most actively traded credit default swaps. Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland are likely to be prominent among those required to pay out on Lehman CDSs. Meanwhile, counterparties failing to meet their CDS obligations to the two banks could lead to significant writedowns. Against this, tangible shareholders' equity bases of £20bn to £30bn seem like cloth tents in a hurricane.

On the heels of similar auction processes for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Washington Mutual late last month, on Oct 10th auction for CDS of Lehman were done for the bond holder and on Oct 21st payout will be done for naked bond holders. For now, traders in the equity market are concerned about the prospects for the settlement, adding that its uncertainty is casting a dark cloud over the most likely holders of the debt — big banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase.

This Lehman credit default swaps settlement auction will likely be one of the most expensive payouts in the history of that market, something the government is certainly keeping an eye on.

http://www.hbjcapital.com/2008/10/lehman-cds-payout-on-october-21-one-of.html

http://meetglad.blogspot.com/

All, Please pass this question to all ur friends. It wud be an exciting week for US markets. Also results are around for most of the major Dow Components.

The futures closed Friday below fair value, which often indicates a weaker open, so the expectation of a lower opening was reasonable. However they've been rallying this evening, so the odds reversed. It doesn't seem that there was anything flawed about the earlier percentages.

Although I agree that questions are not copyrighted (despite, on the other hand, that may be it will be good if there is some coordination when a new user take over a long standing question from the previous question creator) I cannot restrain myself of making some remarks regarding this and the tomorrow's questions.
Starting odds nor the suspend time are not accurate.
As I see things, users who took advantage from the initial 30% odds for the "yes" option will make some unexpectedly big (and far too easy) gains with the support of the HD administration.
Make the odds reflecting your own very subjective and doubtfully founded opinion is a bold and self-confident approach. I was left with the impression that Hubdub does not tolerate such an approach.
To put the suspend time on a Dow open question 6 hours earlier is also an innovative method tending to transform those type of questions into a lottery.
Far too many questions were voided for far less than that.
And I really wonder why the Hubdub administartion tolerate and favorise some obviously extravagant questions and questions creators when in the same time others are subject to growing restrictions and negative approach.

@ orlin good one well put

Well put Orlin and I do agree with many things you've said...but I'm going to let this question go by one time to see how it works out. So far the wagerers have stayed in line with the original odds, which might indicate that they were accurate, at least as far as perceived by the wagering public.

I think there is a valid point to adjusting the odds a bit from 50/50 if the question is created the day before the settlement point. There may be a very valid reason for it to be expected for the market to open one way or another based upon current information. 30% seemed a little low to me, but the market seemed to have adjusted upwards at one point, and then prior to suspension came back down. We'll see how this goes once the DJIA opens.

I am considering voiding the Tuesday question though, because it has the same odds setup, but is not reacting to Monday's developments. If these questions are created well enough in advance, setting them at 50/50 is the proper thing to do, as players can begin wagering on them well in advance and by the time we get to the period 12 hours in advance of settlement market odds will have been adjusted by the bettors themselves.

However, we are looking at suspending these up or down opening questions earlier. Many futures markets and reports are available ahead of the openings, and their information may influence wagering. We are still trying to predict, not react, so closing this question 1 to 2 hours in advance may be the correct action to protect the integrity of the question. This would still allow players to react to market conditions in Europe and Asia and decide how they think the US markets would be affected.

Sorry...I just realized that I read the options incorrectly...this market has truly reversed the odds, from starting at 30% to finishing at 70%...I'll still let this question stand but will void the similar question for Tuesday. Not that it might not be recreated with similar odds, but if so, they will have to be supported by market expectations.

@ bayoubear - "If these questions are created well enough in advance, setting them at 50/50 is the proper thing to do, as players can begin wagering on them well in advance"

Exactly. Let the predictors decide the direction of trend.

Ok, bayoubear
I'm still wondering why the restrictions in business market are growing more and more? What is the purpose of the administration?
To put the suspend time on a Dow open question hours earlier is not a step to increase the interest in this market, because in last 1 hour before opening are coming very important news, which are influence on the opening. That's why this strategy don't make sense at all.