Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average open higher on October 21?

Whay do you think the percentages for up/down opening of DJIA shouldn't be equal?By reason of what their chances are different?

If a question is posed well enough in advance, the likelihood of it going either way is 50/50. However, market conditions vary along the way, and there may be good reason to believe that what will happen in the next day of trading is more likely to go one way or another. For example, after the big day this past Monday, up hundreds of points, it was fairly likely that the next day would see a drop. So if a question is being posed within a relatively short time period of a market, 50/50 may not be correct, particularly when the market has been so volatile. Months ago with a relatively normal market, starting odds of 50/50 were fairly correct. You might see a market go up 25-75 points or go down 50-100 and so forth. It really could go either way. But since September, at least, we've been seeing dramatic changes that really are a bit more predictable.

Not sure that I agree with starting odds of 30%, but adjusting the odds when posted daily may be a good idea. Perhaps having them vary 40/60 or 60/40 according to market conditions would be better, if the question is posed after the market closes the previous day.

Also, a question about the opening price (up or down) should probably suspend several hours before the opening bell since there are futures markets that can provide strong indications of the market's movement at the opening bell.

in today's markets its a even money bet, and should be set at 50 .if you hold this up as and example then all indices should be treated the same??

On Oct 10th payout was done done for those who were holding bonds, and the payout amount was $138bn. On Oct 21st payout for naked CDS will be done which is expected to be 5-6 times more than spot CDS, hence it might be $400-600bn who knows? Since Lehman is bankrupt hence those guys who insured these naked bonds need to pay such a hugh amount. We expect 2-3 big banks who insured these naked CDS to go bankrupt on Oct 21st, Watch Out!!!

Who will get impacted most or might go belly up?

Derivatives specialists insist it is impossible to predict which investors will be hit hardest by the losses on Lehman CDSs, which are spread far and wide, as Lehman was one of the most actively traded credit default swaps. Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland are likely to be prominent among those required to pay out on Lehman CDSs. Meanwhile, counterparties failing to meet their CDS obligations to the two banks could lead to significant writedowns. Against this, tangible shareholders' equity bases of £20bn to £30bn seem like cloth tents in a hurricane.

On the heels of similar auction processes for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Washington Mutual late last month, on Oct 10th auction for CDS of Lehman were done for the bond holder and on Oct 21st payout will be done for naked bond holders. For now, traders in the equity market are concerned about the prospects for the settlement, adding that its uncertainty is casting a dark cloud over the most likely holders of the debt — big banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase.

This Lehman credit default swaps settlement auction will likely be one of the most expensive payouts in the history of that market, something the government is certainly keeping an eye on.

http://www.hbjcapital.com/2008/10/lehman-cds-payout-on-october-21-one-of.html

http://meetglad.blogspot.com/

All, Please pass this question to all ur friends. It wud be an exciting week for US markets. Also results are around for most of the major Dow Components.

Good point. It's odd that anyone would expect Tuesday to be down at this early time.