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Created Sat 18th Oct 2008 5:40am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
All questions » Business » Economics » 

What will be the price of oil following the Presidential election?

Settled as $60.00 to $64.99

Closing price for oil was 61.04 on 11/7

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/energyprices.html

Background:

We've seen some pretty dramatic price shifts in oil this year. Most recently oil has dropped $40 in the past three weeks, and it's uncertain how much lower it might go and what actions might be taken along the way. OPEC is concerned and may slow production to halt the slide and push it back up a bit. Then there's also the matter of the Presidential election...although the price of oil may not figure directly in the election outcome at this time, particularly since it's fallen so much, any actions by OPEC may become a campaign topic.

So what will the price of oil (light, sweet) be at the end of trading on the Friday after the election, November 7?
Question will suspend on Tuesday, November 4.

More info:
"Oil prices dropped below $70 a barrel for the first time in 14 months Thursday, prompting the OPEC cartel to call for an emergency meeting next week to establish some stability in prices that have plummeted recently after rising for months."

Click here for more


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Under $60.00
3%
$60.00 to $64.99
6%
$65.00 to $69.99
12%
$70.00 to $74.99
47%
$75.00 to $79.99
17%
$80.00 to $84.99
8%
$85.00 to $89.99
4%
$90.00 or greater
3%
Activity: H$16,900
Settled as $60.00 to $64.99 on Sun 9th Nov 2008 6:22am PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 2008 6:22am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Under $60.00: 5%, $60.00 to $64.99: 10%, $65.00 to $69.99: 15%, $70.00 to $74.99: 20%, $75.00 to $79.99: 20%, $80.00 to $84.99: 15%, $85.00 to $89.99: 10%, $90.00 or greater: 5%

Action history:

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 9th Nov 2008 6:22am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (90)

90 predictions

9 weeks ago
sandjo_123 predicted $70.00 to $74.99 (H$50 at 43%)
9 weeks ago
thepeoplegeekllc predicted $70.00 to $74.99 (H$500 at 40%)
9 weeks ago
jetstar2_2 predicted $75.00 to $79.99 (H$50 at 31%)
9 weeks ago
davecade predicted $65.00 to $69.99 (H$50 at 10%)
9 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted $65.00 to $69.99 (H$50 at 10%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 dieseldog
baybear - your link is dead on this question also. the letters are blue, but thats it. just letting ya know so it can be fixed for all who want to use it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/business/worldbusiness/17oil.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 dragonfangxl
Im not sure what you are talking about. His link is alive and kicking!
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
somebody fixed it after i posted the comment. the link i have in my comment was in the background details. thanks to whom ever fixed it.
posted 11 weeks ago
  4 tomrcraver
Making the questin bold is nice - but you should put it under the settlement details.
Other questions that have left it vague in the settlement details have later added something specific, that didn't match expectations of "investors". E.g is your "bold" question clearly of higher priority than the title question? Could someone interpret this as "the day after the election?"
posted 9 weeks ago

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