How many states will be "Red" in the CNN polling map, October 24?

West Virginia has swung back to McCain, two days after being for Obama (Right now: 21). CNN switches states to Red or Blue if the lead is over the 4% margin of error, so this apparently means there was a weird 8% change in the last few days. Indiana, Montana, and Georgia are very close to toss-up in most polling websites, while the republicans still hold a thin lead in Missouri and Ohio.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1019.html Explains that the WV switch was all from a probable bad poll by ARG that showed Obama +8 -- pretty much all the other polls done in WV show McCain leading. Once the ARG poll dropped out of the calculations, it flipped back to McCain.

Currently 21 states Red, why nearly 40% on -1 or -2 change to toss-up/Blue (Obama)?

According to your picture you linked from when the question was created, McCain has 19 states (the two most obviously that have been red most of this cycle and history being WV and ND), yet in your text it states he has 20. (Requesting a flag for review now)

I am going to assume the picture is correct and the text is a typo, since its impossible for a screenshot of CNN to be a "typo." =)

This has major implications on the settlement of this prediction, if 19 or 20 is the baseline.

As of today (Wed 22nd), McCain has 20, which is an increase of one from the picture.

According to aggregate data from fivethirtyeight.com, there is ZERO CHANCE that McCain could even tilt the following states to "lean McCain" by the close of this prediction on the 24th: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina. Only North Dakota has a chance, and since polling is so infrequent there, it really is an unknown by the 24th.

That means, barring another state falling out of red as it stands today, it will definitely end at +1 or +2 McCain, which is the same prediction. Let the money flow in.

I count 20 Red states on the Oct 18th screenshot and 21 today on http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/

Note: This question was revised to explicitly refer to the CNN polling Election Tracker.

I was wrong. I missed the hugely important state of Alaska, lol. Not surprising considered it hasn't produced anything of use to us in the "REAL" 48.

Still stand by my prediction and other stats, though - McCain is still on an increase of one with not much wiggle room to lose a current red or gain a current blue.

+1/+2 McCain looks like a total lock.

IMO, Montana and Indiana might change in the next 48 hours. Some polling sites show Obama four points away in both states, which is a toss-up according to CNN rules. There's also a chance a crazy poll swings "red leans" Georgia or South Dakota, much like Ohio turned blue thanks to a Suffolk U poll that gives Obama an 9 pt lead (see jenniandboys' comment).

It all going to depend on which polls CNN uses in its Poll of Polls.

The "Big Ten" polls came out in a lot of Midwest states, and had Obama over 10% in all the Midwest including Indiana, which was quite a shocker. He still maintains solid leads in all of his "Kerry plus Iowa and New Mexico 264 block"

Other polls had Obama up in North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada - though all in the low single digits and under or close to the margin of error.

I take this question to mean, that the latest we will wait for an update on this map is midnight on Friday, and if there is no update, that is the map we use for settlement.

CNN seems to update this map daily. When you look at the link in settlement it says when it was updated, if for some reason they do not update map, then market will settle based on next update. As per the settlement information.

Its updated. From the original picture, Indiana flipped Blue and WV flipped red for a net of zero.

Just something anecdotal, I live in Indiana, which is a conservative state (not as many right wing nuts as like Alabama or Utah, but plenty), and that recent "Big Ten" poll that puts Obama up by 10% seems incredible. Again, anecdotally, I would say McCain would get 6 out of 10 of the votes of people I interact with and know. Although of my parents, who both stupidly voted for DarthCheney/Monkeyboyjr, my dad will be voting democratic for the first time since the 70s and my mom is not voting for the first time she can remember. Thats a loss of 2 Bush/McCain stalwart voters, and a gain of one for Obama. I wonder if there is a trend like that elsewhere in the state.

Maybe it will fade away in a few days. CNN doesn't seem to be very reliable. I started reading FiveThirtyEight as per Jennie's recommendation and they weigh the polls there, and you could see that, even though a 10pt margin in Indiana is unlikely, the trend was turning towards Obama. As we get closer to the election, we get very conflicting data, with pro-Dem news sites pointing huge leads in National polls, and pro-Reps telling us the race is "still close" here and there. There are a few clear swings, now that McCain has downgraded his investment in some states from the Bush staple and directed money to Florida, Virginia, North Carolina. By now I have to concur with James Carville -- the race has never been close. If you look at the Electoral Map Calculator and select "tie", you will see an impossible scenario where McCain still has to take one more unlikely state to win (like NM).