Created Sat 18th Oct 2008 1:50pm PST by

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$68,778)

Will the next US President serve his full first term in office?

Background: Though we think of the President being a relatively safe job, only 34 of the 43 presidents so far have served their full terms in office. Of the nine who didn't, four were assassinated, four died of natural causes, and Richard Nixon resigned. Thus, 79% of presidents served their full terms.

Will POTUS #44 serve at least four full years?

Settlement details:YES if, and only if, whoever is President on January 20, 2009 is still in office on January 19, 2013.

Forecast history %

Yes

89%

11%

Question suspends in 2 years

Activity: H$14,764
Predictions: 9
Comments: 2

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 79%

Action history:

Created Sat 18th Oct 2008 1:50pm PST by

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$68,778)

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Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

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Predictions (9)

24 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted Yes (H$500 at 89%)

1 year ago

kilroyfirelizard Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,352)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 89%)

1 year ago

oppugner Level 14, Prophet (H$118,535)

predicted No (H$5 at 11%)

1 year ago

destry [Admin]

predicted Yes (H$8,771 at 87%)

1 year ago

vincedq Level 6, Player (H$2,183)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 84%)

Comments (2)

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$68,778)

Just a small note about this before anyone accuses me of unpatriotism: I wish the next President well, whomever it is. I just fear that there are enough crazies out there that would attempt to assassinate Barack Obama (or, for that matter, anyone who isn't an old white guy) and have serious concerns about John McCain's health. I decided to use a strictly historical number for the starting odds to try and make this question seem a little less creepy.

posted 1 year ago

blacksoapman Level 10, Genius (H$13,746)

You have to answer yes to this question because if you answer no you'll end up on the terrorist watch list Pixelpaws who do you really work for CIA,FBI,NSA,TSA,NCIS or DHS just playing nice question and history lesson LOL :-}

posted 24 weeks ago

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