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Will the next US President serve his full first term in office?

Background: Though we think of the President being a relatively safe job, only 34 of the 43 presidents so far have served their full terms in office. Of the nine who didn't, four were assassinated, four died of natural causes, and Richard Nixon resigned. Thus, 79% of presidents served their full terms.

Will POTUS #44 serve at least four full years?

Settlement details:YES if, and only if, whoever is President on January 20, 2009 is still in office on January 19, 2013.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
89%
No
11%
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 79%

Action history:

Created Sat 18th Oct 2008 1:50pm PST by pixelpaws

Suspend date: Mon 31st Dec 2012 11:59pm PST (2 years to go) details

 

Predictions (9)

24 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Yes (H$500 at 89%)
1 year ago
kilroyfirelizard predicted Yes (H$50 at 89%)
1 year ago
oppugner predicted No (H$5 at 11%)
1 year ago
destry[Admin] predicted Yes (H$8,771 at 87%)
1 year ago
vincedq predicted Yes (H$100 at 84%)

Comments (2)

  1 pixelpaws
Just a small note about this before anyone accuses me of unpatriotism: I wish the next President well, whomever it is. I just fear that there are enough crazies out there that would attempt to assassinate Barack Obama (or, for that matter, anyone who isn't an old white guy) and have serious concerns about John McCain's health. I decided to use a strictly historical number for the starting odds to try and make this question seem a little less creepy.
posted 1 year ago
You have to answer yes to this question because if you answer no you'll end up on the terrorist watch list Pixelpaws who do you really work for CIA,FBI,NSA,TSA,NCIS or DHS just playing nice question and history lesson LOL :-}
posted 24 weeks ago

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