jsevigny
How many people will be killed in the drug war in Mexico by the end of 2008?
On Dec 2, the Mexican Attorney-General announced that there were 5376 deaths so far this year. (This is the first 5000+ official figure to be found, so will be used for prediction cutoff.)
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/09/america/09mexico.php
Background:
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
| less than 4,000 |
| |||
| 4,000-4,500 |
| |||
| 4,500-5,000 |
| |||
| more than 5,000 |
|
Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 2008 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 10th Dec 2008 1:53pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 2nd Dec 2008 10am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: less than 4,000: 20%, 4,000-4,500: 35%, 4,500-5,000: 30%, more than 5,000: 15%
Action history:
jsevigny jsevigny: http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/09/america/09mexico.php 
veaney
: http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=322516&CategoryId=14091 
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: On Dec 2, the Mexican Attorney-General announced that there were 5376 deaths so far this year. (This is the first 5000+ official figure to be found, so will be used for prediction cutoff.)
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/09/america/09mexico.php
Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 2008 3:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 10th Dec 2008 1:53pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 2nd Dec 2008 10am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (45)
45 predictions
emmag
predicted more than 5,000 (H$700 at 67%)
vashby22
predicted 4,500-5,000 (H$50 at 12%)
horsefeathers
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
obliverous
predicted more than 5,000 (H$2,159 at 55%)
conspiracy2riotComments (11)
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From beheadings, to injecting a child with acid or gunning down patients in a drug rehabilitation center, this year's list of alleged drug gang-related crimes is long and gruesome.
More than 4,500 people have been killed nationwide in the drug cartel war, according to authorities
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081115/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_mexico_violence;_ylt=AkXMiXUAp9mhhzX64p5lslNvaA8F
http://www.individual.com/story.php?story=92662709
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081129/ts_nm/us_mexico_drugs_1
So we've got confirmation from the IHT and Sky. How many more sources do we need to settle this thing?
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