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Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 10:28am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

What will be the result of Tuesday's Gallup poll?

Settled as Obama +11

In the current three-day rolling average of registered voters Obama remains ahead by 52% to 41%,

Background:

We're getting down to the wire with only 2 weeks to go before election day. Everyone else is starting to watch the polls obsessively, why should we be be any different? Let's try some daily poll prognostication and see how we do. Don't worry, the weekly one is still here.

Monday's Gallup showed Obama +11. What will happen in tomorrow's poll?

Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Tuesday will be based on surveys done on Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights. (Based on survey of registered voters)


Settlement details: As reported by Gallup near 1300EDT on Tuesday.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Obama +13 or more
10%
Obama +12
16%
Obama +11
41%
Obama +10
17%
Obama +9 or less
16%
Activity: H$15,932
Settled as Obama +11 on Tue 21st Oct 2008 11:52am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 21st Oct 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Tue 21st Oct 2008 11:52am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 21st Oct 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama +13 or more: 10%, Obama +12: 20%, Obama +11: 35%, Obama +10: 20%, Obama +9 or less: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 10:28am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Changed Description Mon 20th Oct 2008 10:43am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: show details
... the polls obsessively, why should we be be any different? Let ... .com/m19667/What_will_be_the_result_of_Mondays_Gallup_Presidential_Poll">here</a>. <>.<br/> <br/> Monday's Gallup ... happen in tomorrow's poll? <?<br/> <br/> Note: Gallup polls
Suspended Tue 21st Oct 2008 5am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Obama +11' Tue 21st Oct 2008 11:52am PDT by destry[Admin]: In the current three-day rolling average of registered voters Obama remains ahead by 52% to 41%,

Suspend date: Tue 21st Oct 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Tue 21st Oct 2008 11:52am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 21st Oct 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (148)

148 predictions

11 weeks ago
m00mba predicted Obama +9 or less (H$30 at 16%)
11 weeks ago
m00mba predicted Obama +11 (H$100 at 41%)
11 weeks ago
m00mba predicted Obama +10 (H$40 at 17%)
11 weeks ago
curios predicted Obama +11 (H$500 at 37%)
11 weeks ago
chapelhillprognost predicted Obama +10 (H$50 at 18%)
more

Comments (3)

  1 robamichael
yay! I have become addicted to the questions and now you've found a way for me to get my fix!
posted 11 weeks ago
  2 jenniandboys[Admin]
@roba - Huh. Never thought I'd be a dealer. Well hope the withdrawl isn't too bad come Nov 5!
posted 11 weeks ago
  3 destry[Admin]
I love these questions. I find myself charting results based on days of the week looking for patterns. Exactly what a hubdub question should be, part prediction, part research, part fun.
posted 11 weeks ago

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