
What will be the result of Monday's Gallup Presidential Poll?
Note: Gallup polls are the result of a 3 day rolling average so the poll released on Monday will be based on surveys taken Friday, Saturday and Sunday. This market will continue to use the registered voters numbers it has been using since first introduced.
Settlement details:
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx posted near 1300ET on Monday October 27.
If no poll is posted that day for some reason, will be the next released Gallup daily poll.
Settled
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Obama leads by 15 points or more |
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Obama leads by 13 or 14 points |
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Obama leads by 11 or 12 points |
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Obama leads by 9 or 10 points |
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Obama leads by 7 or 8 points |
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Obama leads by 5 or 6 points |
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Other |
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Suspend date: Mon 27th Oct 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Mon 27th Oct 2008 1:41pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 27th Oct 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama leads by 15 points or more: 5%, Obama leads by 13 or 14 points: 15%, Obama leads by 11 or 12 points: 35%, Obama leads by 9 or 10 points: 25%, Obama leads by 7 or 8 points: 10%, Obama leads by 5 or 6 points: 5%, Other: 5%
Action history:
Suspend date: Mon 27th Oct 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Mon 27th Oct 2008 1:41pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 27th Oct 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (356)
356 predictions
Comments (1)
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