Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 10:36am PDT by 
faisal
All questions » Politics » US Politics » faisal 
Will Colin Powell have a cabinet-level appointment within the first year of the new presidency?
Current forecast: 31% chance 
1%
1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 31% likely to happen (up 1% in last 1 day)
Obama has said that Colin Powell will have "a role" within his administration, although the role may not be official. McCain hasn't stated, and he seemed a bit annoyed at Powell, so that seems a little less likely.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Cabinet#Current_Cabinet for a list of cabinet positions, and http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD93UAVE80 for hints of such from Obama.
Initial likelihood is approximately based on current estimated likelihood of Obama and McCain each winning, 75% chance that Powel comes aboard an Obama administration, 25% chance he comes aboard a McCain administration, and 50% chance any such association is a cabinet level appointment.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Cabinet#Current_Cabinet for a list of cabinet positions, and http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD93UAVE80 for hints of such from Obama.
Initial likelihood is approximately based on current estimated likelihood of Obama and McCain each winning, 75% chance that Powel comes aboard an Obama administration, 25% chance he comes aboard a McCain administration, and 50% chance any such association is a cabinet level appointment.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
| Yes |
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| No |
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Activity: H$16,546
Question suspends in 1 year
Suspend date: Wed 20th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 33%
Action history:
Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 10:36am PDT by faisal
faisal
Suspend date: Wed 20th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (32)
32 predictions
lcsnor
predicted No (H$500 at 69%)
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$1,500 at 64%)
predicted Yes (H$500 at 38%)
predicted No (H$20 at 66%)
steez
mork![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Yes (H$2,000 at 38%)
jsevigny
predicted Yes (H$545 at 37%)
notablenotices
predicted Yes (H$5 at 36%)
curios
predicted Yes (H$50 at 36%)
sdchargers
predicted Yes (H$111 at 36%)Comments (1)
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