Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 9:36am PST by 
faisal
faisal 
Will Colin Powell have a cabinet-level appointment within the first year of the new presidency?
Background: Obama has said that Colin Powell will have "a role" within his administration, although the role may not be official. McCain hasn't stated, and he seemed a bit annoyed at Powell, so that seems a little less likely.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Cabinet#Current_Cabinet for a list of cabinet positions, and http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD93UAVE80 for hints of such from Obama.
Initial likelihood is approximately based on current estimated likelihood of Obama and McCain each winning, 75% chance that Powel comes aboard an Obama administration, 25% chance he comes aboard a McCain administration, and 50% chance any such association is a cabinet level appointment.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Cabinet#Current_Cabinet for a list of cabinet positions, and http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD93UAVE80 for hints of such from Obama.
Initial likelihood is approximately based on current estimated likelihood of Obama and McCain each winning, 75% chance that Powel comes aboard an Obama administration, 25% chance he comes aboard a McCain administration, and 50% chance any such association is a cabinet level appointment.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Forecast history %
| Yes |
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| No |
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Question suspends in 8 weeks
- Activity: H$35,017 |
- Predictions: 38 |
Comments: 1
Get widget!Predictions (38)
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mork![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$5,000 at 79%)
rbrog77
lcsnorComments (1)
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