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Will Colin Powell have a cabinet-level appointment within the first year of the new presidency?

Background: Obama has said that Colin Powell will have "a role" within his administration, although the role may not be official. McCain hasn't stated, and he seemed a bit annoyed at Powell, so that seems a little less likely.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Cabinet#Current_Cabinet for a list of cabinet positions, and http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD93UAVE80 for hints of such from Obama.

Initial likelihood is approximately based on current estimated likelihood of Obama and McCain each winning, 75% chance that Powel comes aboard an Obama administration, 25% chance he comes aboard a McCain administration, and 50% chance any such association is a cabinet level appointment.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
11%
No
89%
Question suspends in 8 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 20th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 33%

Action history:

Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 9:36am PST by faisal

Suspend date: Wed 20th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (8 weeks to go) details

 

Predictions (38)

2 weeks ago
reverend_right predicted No (H$9,000 at 86%)
42 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted No (H$5,000 at 79%)
42 weeks ago
tarpash predicted No (H$1,000 at 71%)
43 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted No (H$1,000 at 70%)
46 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$500 at 69%)

Comments (1)

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