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Will Colin Powell have a cabinet-level appointment within the first year of the new presidency?

Current forecast: 31% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 31% likely to happen (up 1% in last 1 day)

Obama has said that Colin Powell will have "a role" within his administration, although the role may not be official. McCain hasn't stated, and he seemed a bit annoyed at Powell, so that seems a little less likely.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Cabinet#Current_Cabinet for a list of cabinet positions, and http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5isOFwdbq0tsqatW6vJpkDRTI1gMgD93UAVE80 for hints of such from Obama.

Initial likelihood is approximately based on current estimated likelihood of Obama and McCain each winning, 75% chance that Powel comes aboard an Obama administration, 25% chance he comes aboard a McCain administration, and 50% chance any such association is a cabinet level appointment.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
31%
No
69%
Activity: H$16,546
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Wed 20th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 33%

Action history:

Created Mon 20th Oct 2008 10:36am PDT by faisal

Suspend date: Wed 20th Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
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Predictions (32)

32 predictions

5 days ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$500 at 69%)
5 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$1,500 at 64%)
8 weeks ago
kirin predicted Yes (H$500 at 38%)
9 weeks ago
andrewparker predicted No (H$20 at 66%)
9 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$1,500 at 64%)
more

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