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Of 86 defendants charged with trying to overthrow Turkey's government how many will be found guilty?
Current forecast: 76-86 found guilty (29% chance
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Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 76-86 found guilty with a probability of 29% (unchanged in last 1 day)
The Turkish government has charged 86 people with conspiring to overthrow the government. The charged include a retired Army general, a nationalist politician, a newspaper editor, a best-selling author and a former university dean.
All of the charged are alleged to be part of a secret group called the 'Ergenekon' who planned to create a violent uprising to overthrow the government. The alleged reasoning of the defendants was due to Turkey's pro-Islamic government. They wanted to overthrow the current government and install a secular government.
The trial began in a overcrowded courtroom, where the accused and their lawyers complained of overcrowding and bad acoustics. The room is fitted for 280 people but due to the immensity of the court case the room can't even hold the case.
CNN Story
All of the charged are alleged to be part of a secret group called the 'Ergenekon' who planned to create a violent uprising to overthrow the government. The alleged reasoning of the defendants was due to Turkey's pro-Islamic government. They wanted to overthrow the current government and install a secular government.
The trial began in a overcrowded courtroom, where the accused and their lawyers complained of overcrowding and bad acoustics. The room is fitted for 280 people but due to the immensity of the court case the room can't even hold the case.
CNN Story
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. None found guilty includes the prospects of a mistrial or some event causing the proceedings to end. This market relates to the charges of conspiracy to overthrow the government. The suspend date shall be moved to meet with the case timetable.
Make your prediction!
| None found guilty or other |
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| 1-25 found guilty |
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| 26-50 found guilty |
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| 51-75 found guilty |
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| 76-86 found guilty |
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Activity: H$4,187
Question suspends in 40 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 21st Oct 12:59am PDT (40 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: None found guilty or other: 20%, 1-25 found guilty: 25%, 26-50 found guilty: 15%, 51-75 found guilty: 15%, 76-86 found guilty: 25%
Action history:
Changed Settlement info Mon 20th Oct 2008 3:51pm PDT by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: show details
ryanj: show details ... causing the proceedings to end. This market relates to the charges of conspiracy to overthrow the government. The suspend date shall be
Suspend date: Wed 21st Oct 12:59am PDT (40 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (29)
29 predictions
hokis
predicted 51-75 found guilty (H$50 at 17%)
predicted None found guilty or other (H$100 at 15%)
pembeci
predicted 26-50 found guilty (H$120 at 22%)
monkey_man_444
predicted 26-50 found guilty (H$50 at 20%)
deelilley
predicted 1-25 found guilty (H$50 at 17%)
letmewinplees![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
cognos
predicted 26-50 found guilty (H$444 at 15%)
bout3fitty
jhouseholder
predicted 51-75 found guilty (H$5 at 29%)
infernalmachine
predicted None found guilty or other (H$100 at 15%)
robuk
valornhonor
predicted 51-75 found guilty (H$500 at 26%)
lcsnor
sdchargers
predicted 26-50 found guilty (H$100 at 13%)
curiosComments (1)
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This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
ABC Online 1 day ago
generals, media said, in the latest stage of a probe into an alleged plot to topple EU aspirant Turkey's Islamic AK Party Government. Eighty-six people, including retired army officers, politicians and lawyers, are on trial for allegedly being part of a
score: 10
International Herald Tribune 1 day ago
police detained around 30 people Wednesday in the latest operation in an investigation into an alleged plot to overthrow the government, state-run Anatolian news agency reported. Eighty-six people, including retired army officers, politicians and
score: 10
Reuters Canada 1 week ago
highest court against a ruling ordering the release of a leading human rights campaigner charged with plotting to overthrow the government, state media said on Saturday. Jestina Mukoko, head of a local rights group, and eight other activists were this
score: 10
Reuters South Africa 2 weeks ago
Jestina Mukoko. Mukoko, head of the Zimbabwe Peace Project, and nine other activists were charged with plotting to overthrow President Robert Mugabe's government. If found guilty the activists could face the death penalty, lawyers said
score: 10
IOL 2 weeks ago
release on Wednesday of local human rights campaigner Jestina Mukoko and nine other activists charged with plotting to overthrow President Robert Mugabe's government. Mukoko, a former newscaster who headed the Zimbabwe Peace Project, was picked up at
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